Keith Richards
Posts:781
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| 09/04/2013 11:58 AM |
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I am not going to discount Horner only because of his tactical chops.
I have always said that road bike racing is not supposed to be JUST a watts contest. Horner played them well by attacking early. If he had waited until 2k to go, he probably would have lost time.
I am not questioning his performance at this point. If he were to hold on for the win...I will then cast the ole side-eye. |
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It is his word versus ours. We like our word. We like where we stand and we like our credibility."--Lance Armstrong. |
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nightfend
Posts:48
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| 09/04/2013 01:19 PM |
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| Okay, so if Horner is heavily doping, what exactly is he taking that is so magically better than everyone else? And why didn't he take this same magic juice years ago? That's what I'd like to know. Maybe, just maybe, he was always a talented climber and just had a lot of bad luck and/or was forced into a domestique role where he couldn't vye for a high GC placing. |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 09/04/2013 02:07 PM |
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nightfend, Horner is like me, only 10 times better. Built to go uphill, great endurance. I knew in my racing days that had I been 10 times better, I could have finished a grand tour, maybe won a stage or two, maybe even wear the GC jersey, but I could never win it. I don't know if Horner is doping. But I think the scenario that he isn't and hasn't is plausible. Now we see him at his best (for his age). But he has, in my opinion, about zero chance of winning this thing and not a whole lot better if he had not tanked (quite predictably) today.
10 years ago, a younger, stronger clean Horner would have been just pack fodder in the EPO fueled cycling world. And, I believe that is what I recall seeing. And winning a GT then would have been nearly as unlikely as now even if the peleton was clean then. Horner is like me; a mountain goat Mountain goats don't win tours..
Ben |
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BikeCzar
Posts:53
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| 09/04/2013 06:27 PM |
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this thread is everything that is wrong with pro cycling. Enjoy the show. Unless you have overwhelming proof, then chill out and let the rest of us enjoy it at least. f-in soap opera.
on evolution - look at the size and strength of people today compared to people in the 1950s. look at the intellectual capacity of people today compared to the 1950s. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 09/04/2013 11:32 PM |
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LOL....this thread is everything is wrong with professional cycling? A tinly sliver of the internet is what is wrong with professional cycling? Seriously? OK then.....what was that about soap operas?
And last time I checked, no one is stopping you from enjoying it. have at it....feel free to ignore any comments that detract from your enjoyment. YOU control your enjoyment, not anyone else.
Agreed with keith....everything horner has done so far is not outside the realm of belief. he has proven he has the capability to contest 7-10 day stage races. But if he is still contending on the third week? yeah, I'm calling bullschitt.
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 09/05/2013 12:16 AM |
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Posted By Cosmic Kid on 09/04/2013 11:32 PM
Agreed with keith....everything horner has done so far is not outside the realm of belief. he has proven he has the capability to contest 7-10 day stage races. But if he is still contending on the third week? yeah, I'm calling bullschitt.
I am pretty sure you called bull on page 1 of this thread; or was that mental gymnastics 
After today he's perhaps already an ex-contender, although swallowing that bee must not have helped.
Too bad this article never was translated in English - scroll down to the table. It seems to confirm my feelings on LeTour.
http://www.lemonde.fr/sport/article/2013/07/21/tour-de-france-juan-pat-aidez-nous-a-comprendre-l-exceptionnel_3450751_3242.html
Someone move this thread to the darkside where it belongs
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 09/05/2013 12:29 AM |
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Meh....I got ahead of myself. I kinda expected him to fade before his last stage win. ;-)
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| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
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Scanz
Posts:8
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| 09/12/2013 12:13 PM |
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| OK. Are you calling Bullschitt? I have to say. This sure is a fun one to watch. I'll take this Vuelta over the Froomefest in July anytime! |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 09/12/2013 12:52 PM |
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Yeah, I'm calling bullschitt at this point. Sorry, 41 YO riders don't suddenly blossom into GT riders, even one that is lower on the pecking order like the Vuelta.
It simply defies everything we know about human performance......even if you take the stance that he was a (clean) exceptional rider whose potential was minimized by everyone doping around him, it still doesn't add up. Add in that he is widely regarded as Rider #15 and it makes even less sense.
I was never a Horner fan when he was dominating the US circuit....too whiny and his issues were always laid at the feet of his sponsors. I become a fan when he went back to Europe because of his grit.....but now.....sorry. Been duped way too many times.
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| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 09/12/2013 01:47 PM |
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This Vuelta is certainly a lot more entertaining than the lap around France.
Can we believe it? Hard to say. Horner is an old dude and there's questions around him but he's also the only one entering this race fresh with his first peak of season. Nibali's power numbers have been dropping so that is one clear reason why the race is developing as it is. Its interesting that the Spanish contigent seems to be finding its 2nd wind in the 3rd week as they also seemed to do in LeTour. That part seems counterintuitive.
I'm enjoying the race, that's all that is for sure. And heck, my pick for overall salvaging the Vuelta yesterday does not hurt. |
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Oldfart
Posts:511
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| 09/12/2013 01:50 PM |
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| Late bloomers are athletes that take up a sport late in their age. Not athletes that have been riding pro for a long long time. I do know guys that started local mountain bike racing in their late 30's. They were OK at first but developed over the years into guys that won world masters world champions. But not world elite pro champions. Maybe if those guys had started when they were in their teens. I find it hard to believe that a 41 year old can become a grand tour challenger. Sure Nibali may be tired still from the Giro and a year of racing while Horner "rested" with injury. Sure Horner may be extra hungry to win so that he gets a contract with a team. Maybe he was always good and clean but only shows well because every other rider is also now clean. Yeah the Vuelta is not the Giro let alone a TdF. But 41? Really? |
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jmdirt
Posts:775
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| 09/12/2013 03:24 PM |
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Cosmic,
I called Chinook on this yesterday so I'll call you today: "It simply defies everything we know about human performance." Give us some data, numbers, facts, what do we know?
I won't defend CH because I have no way of knowing what he does or doesn't do (I know there are lots of "facts" on the WWW). But claiming that a 41 year old can't compete with younger guys is not based on fact. The main reason performance declines with age is due to a decline in endocrine function.
Cycling fans have the right to be suspicious because cycling has been dirty for about 100 years and friggin' rank for the last 20 but speculating using generalizations doesn't get us anywhere.
If you want to argue that CH shouldn't be able to do what he is doing, age isn't the big red flag, his long list of injuries is. While endocrine system function is the main factor, injuries are also a big factor. |
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Oldfart
Posts:511
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| 09/12/2013 03:33 PM |
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| In defence of Cosmic, how many 41 year old pro cyclists are competitive? The best GT riders tend to be late twenties early thirties. Lots of things decline as a person ages. Recovery and drive are two that I think are natural declinations that we all go through some more some less but it is unavoidable. I am skeptical of CH's performance but will give him the benefit of the doubt because I am sure he has been and is getting tested very frequently and until there is a negative finding, he's clean. |
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jmdirt
Posts:775
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| 09/12/2013 03:41 PM |
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Very few...one that I can think of now. Recovery declines as the endocrine function declines. Drive is part of the mental aspect that is also a big factor (and can also be effected by endocrine function).
My point is that it doesn't defy what we know about human performance.
No need to defend Cosmic, he's been around a long time and knows that his statement isn't accurate but he's jaded like most of us. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 09/12/2013 04:31 PM |
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jm-
Here are a few studies to look at.
http://www.maynardlifeoutdoors.com/2012/02/age-and-athletic-ability.html
Conclusion - peak performance occurs at 30 and declines slightly until 40 and then rapidly after that.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2267663/
"The average difference in performance for a 1-year increment in age increased throughout the age groups. This difference was twice as great at 40 years as at age 20 years and 4.5-times greater at 80 years of age." Note - this used swimming as the exercise model. Another quote - " In samples of 319 male and 321 female elite swimmers followed prospectively for 12 years, Tanaka et al. analyzed the effect of age on championship performance times in 50-m and 1500-m freestyle swimming races (Donato et al. 2003; Tanaka and Seals 1997). In their analysis (Donato et al. 2003), peak performance was maintained approximately until age 35 years, then a curvilinear decline similar to that in our study was observed."
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1113/jphysiol.2007.141879/pdf
And let me clarify one point - I am not saying a 41 YO can't compete with younger athletes. What I am saying is that one doesn't become a GT contender at the age of 41 without at some point previously showing that capability. Horner has never shown the ability to compete for the overall in a GT. That ability isn't just gonna show up now.
Horner has had access to the best training methods and developmental resources for years.......nobody once has ever said "Whoa.....this guy has some crazy capabilities." And now he does at 41?
Just doesn't add up for me....
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