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stage 10 spoiler
Last Post 09/13/2013 05:07 PM by Coup de Pedale. 55 Replies.
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jmdirt

Posts:707

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09/12/2013 05:21 PM
"It simply defies everything we know about human performance." was what I was questioning.

"Conclusion - peak performance occurs at 30 and declines slightly until 40 and then rapidly after that. " in a majority of men/people but not all.

Would you generally say that men in their 40s have lower T than men in their 20s? There are studies that identify men in their 40s with T levels as high as 20 year olds.
jmdirt

Posts:707

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09/12/2013 09:58 PM
I was thinking while driving home (yes it hurt): Everyone is claiming that CH was never a GT GC rider BUT:
-The French team brought him to Europe to be their next GT GC guy (that bombed).
-He came back and dominated North and South American as well as some Asian racing (with TD and NO).
-The Spanish pen team brought him back to Europe to be a GT GC guy (he showed flashes).
-The Belgian/Lotto crew brought him in to lead CE to a TdF title (he showed ability to ride strong for 3 weeks).
-He got picked up by the American dope machine to assist in GTs (he rode well but crashed a lot).
-He had a few top 10 GT results riding in support of other riders (he might have done more if not for the crashes/injuries).
-He became a good one week racer again because that was his only chance to be team leader.
*All of that indicates that he is a GT GC threat and directors have known it for 15 years.

I don't want to sound like I'm defending CH because, as I said, I have no idea what he is or isn't doing but there are indications that team directors saw potential in him and there are results that indicate that he can be very strong over three weeks. To claim otherwise is ignoring the facts.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1125

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09/13/2013 05:09 AM
Jm, not certain what you are referring to....I supported my statement with three studies that backed it up. Peak physical performance occurs in the early 30's and declines from there. So yes, Horner @ 41 having the best race of his career defies what we know about human performance.

Is it possible that he is an outlier? I suppose.....but when you add in a questionable past, it seems to be a remote possibility (at best).

And he does not have a "few" top 10's in GT's.....he has one (2010 TdF). He was also 11' off the pace....not exactly contending, IMO.

It kills me to say it, but I just don't buy a guy @ 41 (and 42 next month), with a questionable past, suddenly displaying an ability to contest GT's that he has never done before. A I have said before, I have never been one to make judgements about doping based on the fact that a rider is winning......but this one just doesn't pass the sniff test for me.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Entheo

Posts:317

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09/13/2013 07:25 AM
you can color me very skeptical on horner's staying power.

apples to apples, age will be a significant factor in one of the most important aspects of a 3 week race -- recovery. that a 41 year old can go out and win a stage or even compete for the GC in the first week (e.g. jens) isn't surprising; that he can be there with guys of equal or greater athletic abilities who are 10 to 20 years younger in the 3rd week... well, it's no wonder my eyebrows are on top of my head.

add to that the fact that spain has a proven track record of, well, let's put it this way, leniency when it comes to testing and enforcement of events hosted on their soil.
jmdirt

Posts:707

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09/13/2013 08:54 AM
Cosmic,

I can provide you with better studies to support your statement. What are CH's numbers though?

If he was dirty when he rode with LA does that make him dirty now?

Believe me while I am cheering CH on, I am also clicking my heels together saying "please be real, please be real, please be real".

Entheo, If I could get my eyebrows on top of my head, I could have bangs again (first time since the 80s)!
Orange Crush

Posts:1202

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09/13/2013 11:46 AM
"Peak athletic performance is reached at age 30, with remarkably little decline for the next ten years." that is literally what the study said. That said, TdF winners have aged 28yrs +/- 8yrs (20-36) so Horner would be considerably pushing that envelope.

I don't care for the swim analogy. Compared to cycling most swimming disciplines are like a sprint. Sprinters will reach their expiry date sooner than classics and GC riders.

Long distance speed skating may be a better analogy (I am talking distances approaching 200k) with guys in their low 40s definitely being competitive. But then again you need steel balls to even pick up that sport.
jmdirt

Posts:707

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09/13/2013 12:13 PM
OC, unfortunately the most valid research of endurance athletes is on marathon runners and the pounding gets them before they make it long enough to see good data out near 40. (edit) There is a Norge study of Nordic skiers but I've not read the conclusion.

All elite athletes are outliers that is why they make it to the level they do. They produce more of some endocrine secretions and less of others than the rest of us.
RNDDUDE

Posts:78

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09/13/2013 03:56 PM
Studies are great for measuring generalities, but there have always been, and will continue to be, outliers who defy the norm, particularily in regards to remaining competitive with age. especially when it comes to endurance events. Diane Nyad comes to mind, having finally made a successful distance swim in her 50's. Horner MIGHT be one of those outliers, and as I said before, he might be one of those guys whose "clean" abilities are on a par with than some of the others who are also now forced to ride clean. He is also coming into this GT very fresh, season wise.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistant one. -Albert Einstein
Entheo

Posts:317

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09/13/2013 04:11 PM
nyad has come under scrutiny for a particular stretch of her swim increasing in speed from 1.5 mph to almost 4 (many hours into her swim, for a 5 hour period). she and her manager attributed it to a very favorable gulf stream, and some meteorologists have confirmed that that could have happened.

tail winds... ya gotta love those tail winds!
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1125

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09/13/2013 04:19 PM
Whoa...hang on. Nyad did not "finally make a successful distance swim" in her 50's. She has been doing distance swims for decades and is well-known for her exploits.

What she did was finally find a way around some of the issues that have stopped her previous Cuba - FL swims....namely dealing with the jellyfish.

She has the track record that indicated she was capable of such a swim......and she was hardly swimming "fast" during her swim. It was about endurance, not speed. That is not the same as riding a GT where long periods of anaerobic efforts are required (although clearly endurance plays a critical role).

She also was not competing against anyone.....her accomplishment was much more of a "completion" vs. a "competition."
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
laurentja

Posts:122

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09/13/2013 05:07 PM
It's true that Chris has had a lot of years of stage racing, but not a lot of opportunities to ride as the indisputable leader on a strong team. RS is doing a remarkable job supporting him now. I was a little scared for him after Cancellara went home, but they are doing great.
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