Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
 |
| 10/22/2014 09:51 AM |
|
Nairo Quintana.
Route is tailor-made for him. AC may give him a run, but I think Quintana is well positioned for his first TdF title.
The one thing that may come back to hurt him in the last week is his ability to hold up to the rigors of a 3 week race. Pure climbers can have a tendency to break down in the later stages of a Grand Tour.
We'll see!! |
|
| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
|
|
|
Yo Mike
Posts:338
|
| 10/22/2014 10:10 AM |
|
| It would be nice for AC to have a good run at Le Tour next year. Have not looked at the route yet. Starting this year in Japan, perhaps? They DO have cobbles there, don't they? |
|
|
|
|
Orange Crush
Posts:4499
|
| 10/22/2014 11:28 AM |
|
The start is in the city where I spent 8 drunken years as a student, Utrecht, NL :-)
CK - well let's see now if Quintana can survive the rigours of echelon riding on the Dutch dikes and subsequently the 7 cobble stretches that have been laid down. Normandy also promises to make for nervous riding. |
|
|
|
|
ChinookPass
Posts:809
|
| 10/22/2014 11:33 AM |
|
Yeah look for Valverde trying to drop Quintana in the TTT.
Methinks the French are so damn excited to finally have some climbing contenders, that they wanted to take out most of the TTs. |
|
|
|
|
Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
|
| 10/22/2014 12:17 PM |
|
Didn't take long for Froome to don his panties.....
http://velonews.competitor.com/2014/10/news/froome-may-skip-mountainous-2015-tour-for-giro-vuelta-double_350177
And I do have to giggle a bit at the idea of this particular Tour being announced just a couple of weeks after ol' Andy hung up his cleats. 
|
|
| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
|
|
|
Inferno7
Posts:344
|
| 10/23/2014 01:09 PM |
|
| Stoked!! |
|
|
|
|
79pmooney
Posts:3180
|
| 10/23/2014 01:39 PM |
|
OC, we will see what Quintana is made of. But he is a fighter. I'll put my bet on him doing is d***est to hang in on the cobbles and crosswinds, that he does some serious early season work to get ready. In fact, I'll bet he doesn't lose more than 1:45 to anybody that matters.
Contador knows he has to put that kind of time into Quiintana. Perhaps make an echelon split. If they hit the mountains within 2 minutes of each other, look out! This could be a great Tour!
Ben |
|
|
|
|
Orange Crush
Posts:4499
|
| 10/23/2014 02:14 PM |
|
| The challenge for anyone will be there's a hard first week (dike/wind riding, Mur de Huy, cobbles) and a very hard last week so where do you peak? This will be a particular challenge for anyone wanting to do the Giro-Tour double. |
|
|
|
|
Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
|
| 10/23/2014 02:57 PM |
|
OC just inadvertly hit upon what could be the interesting factor next July....two very different types of riding for different parts of the race.
Opening week - power, positioning and team will be critical to gaining time or maintain position.
Final week - Watts / kg will be the driving factor (along with how many team members you have left).
Different racing styles, different training requirements, etc. Can one rider (Nibali?) get enough of a lead in the first week to fend of the climbers (Quintana) in the final week? Can the climbers keep the power riders close enough early, so they can lay the wood in the finale? |
|
| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
|
|
|
Orange Crush
Posts:4499
|
| 10/23/2014 03:51 PM |
|
Posted By Cosmic Kid on 10/23/2014 02:57 PM
OC just inadvertly hit upon what could be the interesting factor next July....two very different types of riding for different parts of the race.
I don't care for the use of inadvertently 
There's always been different types of riding required in Le Tour. But often the GC favorites could "ease" into the race with sprint stages dominating the first week and therefore aim to peak in the 2nd half. That concept went out the door big time last year. |
|
|
|
|
stronz
Posts:447
|
| 10/23/2014 04:02 PM |
|
| Here's my prediction -- one or two of the favorites will crash out in the first week on the cobbles. The rest of the race will be over after the first mountain top finish because there will be fewer to contest the top spot of the GC. The race will wind up being like this year: a snooze fest in which we wonder what would have happened if so and so hadnt been forced to abandon -- Once again the Giro and the Vuelta will be the better races. Note to Prudhomme -- stop making the peleton ride over Cobbles during the tdf. We get plenty of that in the spring classics. By insisting on these "exciting" cobble stages, he is creating a very un-exciting race. That is all.... |
|
|
|
|
Yo Mike
Posts:338
|
| 10/23/2014 04:29 PM |
|
+1 Stronz
Highly likely |
|
|
|
|
Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
|
| 10/23/2014 04:42 PM |
|
I dunno. Haven't seen a lot of details about the cobbles, but they are pretty short next year (13.3KM over 7 sections) and don't seem to be the more notorious of the sections.
And since Frrome is already goin' Nancy about the Tour, they may not be an issue as far as the favorites are concerned. |
|
| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
|
|
|
Orange Crush
Posts:4499
|
| 10/23/2014 04:51 PM |
|
Froome was done the stage before they hit the cobbles; the cobbles merely sealed the deal.
IMO the Tour is finally on the right track. The alternative as we saw many years is two weeks of sprinters boredome, one mountain stage and it is still done. At least now there's some initial excitement. |
|
|
|
|
stronz
Posts:447
|
| 10/23/2014 05:26 PM |
|
| its bike racing in July-- we dont need no stinkin cobbles to make it fun. Mountains, twisties, and some scenery. And of course 180 crazed skinny physical outliers. IMO - the tour is completely on the wrong track. It has been the single most boring GT every year for three years running. Maybe even longer. Last good one was Cadel's win -- 2011 |
|
|
|
|
Orange Crush
Posts:4499
|
| 10/23/2014 05:48 PM |
|
Once again, it has nothing to do with cobbles, two of those three years were run on a very traditional Tour course but were dominated Postal-style by Team Sky. That dominance made the racing boring. By comparison 2014 was a fresh wind.
2011 was relatively interesting because no one dominated. Contador was off his rocker because he did the Giro. At that time there was no other big fish or they had crashed out. 2011 while also on a traditional course had a big number of crashes to set back a number of contendors:
"The first week and a half was notable for the number of crashes involving high profile riders, with Andreas Klöden, Bradley Wiggins, Alexandre Vinokourov, Janez Brajkovič, Chris Horner and Jurgen Van Den Broeck all having to withdraw injured, while Robert Gesink, Alberto Contador, Samuel Sánchez and Levi Leipheimer all lost considerable amounts of time and condition due to falls".
Short memory I guess :-) |
|
|
|
|
stronz
Posts:447
|
| 10/23/2014 06:10 PM |
|
| 2014 was a fresh wind? wow... not for me. Look crashes happen. I'm just saying we dont need to make them more likely |
|
|
|
|
Orange Crush
Posts:4499
|
| 10/23/2014 09:36 PM |
|
LOL, now you're channeling Andy.
:-) |
|
|
|
|
79pmooney
Posts:3180
|
| 10/23/2014 10:28 PM |
|
All this complaining about the cobbles. Anyone remember how because of those cobbles, one GC rider had to put in a superhuman effort to finsh within a minute of another GC rider who was protected by his teammates the whole stage? 2010 (as I recall) when Contador got hit from behind when he slowed for a crash, then timetrialed much of the stage to join the second group on the road, all the while riding a dying rear wheel. That ride meant that he was in position time-wise to sink Andy Schleck when AS had his famous mechanical.
I thought that cobbled stage ride AC put in was ride worthy of a Tour win, much like Nibali's was last year. I think it is cool that both played out ultimately for wins. Those riders needed help, yes, but were rides for the ages. I love seeing riders on the top step in Paris who put in one of those rides to get there.
Not all of the epic rides are done on the TT course or in the high mountains. This is a "tour". It should see everything. (I'd like to see the winds of the North Sea do some real damage this year!)
Just my feelings.
Ben |
|
|
|
|
longslowdistance
Posts:2881
|
| 10/25/2014 03:40 PM |
|
And an omen for the 2015 World's TT ?
This by the rural part of the TT course, which starts outside of Richmond and finishes in the city: |
|
|
|
|
jmdirt
Posts:775
|
| 10/27/2014 09:32 AM |
|
The '14 TdF was better because we saw a GC guy who said "bring it on!" I like a GT that requires a well rounded rider and team. "The Giro and Vuelta are more exciting" has become popular rhetoric. Even if they ran them on 10 lane, flat motoways there would be people saying how much better they are because that's the fashion for now. Watching guys going 5 mph up a dirt wall is better than cobbles how?
The '15 TdF could be a good race. |
|
|
|
|
ChinookPass
Posts:809
|
| 10/28/2014 12:37 PM |
|
This jersey is a loser, that's for sure.
 |
|
|
|
|
stronz
Posts:447
|
| 10/28/2014 12:41 PM |
|
| People say the Vuelta and Giro are more exciting because they have been more exciting recently. Simple as that. The Vuelta has been more exciting because there have been 3 or 4 of the top competitors present all the way thru til the end for the last several years. Has there been a more exciting day in a recent GT than 'Berto's attack on Purito from way out in 2012? NO! That didnt happen in the tour. That was the Vuelta. Rhetoric? nope --- Reality. A three week race that is over on stage 9 is not exciting and that was the problem with the tour this year. We're stuck watching one guy promenade around France without any real challenge. Thats fun? Its watching the elite guys go after each other as the race develops over 21 days thats exciting. AC's attack on Purito in 2012 was during stage 17. For a GT to be exciting we need these guys to make it thru to the later stages -- not to crash out during the first week. I love Cobbles -- thats what the spring classics are for. All IMHO of course |
|
|
|
|
Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
|
| 10/28/2014 02:49 PM |
|
@ CP - first thing I thought when I saw that jersey was "Uh, where are you putting the sponsors' names?"
Check that....it was the second thought. First one was "Wow...that is ugly."
|
|
| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
|
|
|
jmdirt
Posts:775
|
| 10/28/2014 05:14 PM |
|
| Stronz, Three recent Vueltas have been pretty good, but that doesn't warrant "the Vuelta and Giro are more exciting" rhetoric. You only use one Vuelta to make your point, and the GC as the only thing that makes a GT exciting. There's a lot more to it IMO. |
|
|
|
|
Orange Crush
Posts:4499
|
| 10/28/2014 06:02 PM |
|
If the Vuelta/Giro are more exciting (and let's realize that until recent years the Vuelta was considered a borefest preparation for WC), it is because typically in both races the teams are not as deep/strong. This in turn creates a situation where the leaders have to battle it out individually, which results in excitement.
In Tour typically we see very strong teams and often one or a couple of teams will dominate proceedings which puts a damper on excitement because things become more predictable. It has nothing to do with terrain or cobbles in particular.
As Ben correctly points out, a GT winner should ideally be an all-rounder. If a GT were just about TTing and climbing then this would create very one-dimensional cyclists, the Froome's and Schlecks of this world. Not something to look forward too.
The argument made against cobbles (great for spring) can equally well be made for mountains (plenty of one week world tour races focused on climbing). |
|
|
|
|
longslowdistance
Posts:2881
|
| 10/28/2014 06:37 PM |
|
A contrarian view: the issue with the cobbles, and super narrow twisty roads with crosswinds, early in the race is they introduce a significant luck factor in terms of crashing and injuries. This sort of risk should be minimized. This is not so much of an issue in the mountains.
At least that's the argument. Not saying I agree with it. Watching Nibali float over the cobbles last summer was just beautiful.
An alternative: 2 hard mountain stages right in the beginning to sort things out a bit before lottery stages. Suffer through that sprinters! |
|
|
|
|
stronz
Posts:447
|
| 10/29/2014 08:53 AM |
|
| LSD and OC you make excellent points - especially the business about the teams being stronger at the tour and better able to control the race. JM if you look at my post you'll seee I say repeatedly "last several years" and "recently." And I agree that it was damned impressive watching Nibali handle the cobbles. I guess I object to what LSD said - that the cobbles introduce a bit too much of the luck factor. :Yes luck favors the well-prepared (ie those who can ride the cobbles effectively) - and riding rough terrain is a big part of the history of the tdf so there ius an argument to be made that cobbles belong in the tour. I'll just shut up then and watch all 3 GTs very happily. But I do predict the Tour will not be the most exciting GT once again. |
|
|
|
|
mondonico
Posts:158
|
| 11/19/2014 07:51 PM |
|
| I'm sorry for the jr high humor, or lack of, but that Jersey has a huge woody!! |
|
|
|
|
79pmooney
Posts:3180
|
| 11/19/2014 09:39 PM |
|
mondonico has a point. This is a yellow jersey any man would be proud to wear.
Ben |
|
|
|
|
stronz
Posts:447
|
| 11/20/2014 08:41 AM |
|
| O my- I just saw that. Dayem....that is funny! Boy the designers really pulled a boner on that one... |
|
|
|
|
Dale
Posts:1767
|
| 11/20/2014 10:05 AM |
|
| It'll be interesting to see what the La Course by Le Tour de France leaders jersey looks like. |
|
|
|
|