Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 03/20/2019 09:53 AM |
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The signal that we have once again survived Winter.....la Primavera is Saturday. It is, without a doubt, my favorite finish of any of the Classics....nothing matches the spectacle of a huge peloton speeding towards the Cipressa and then full-on racing for the next 30K.
After Aliphalippe's sprint victory in Tirreno-Adriatico, he has to be the #1 favorite going into the weekend. Deceunick's gameplan will likely be to send him on the Poggio and let Viviani ride wheels in case he gets caught.
Sagan appeared to be struggling all week in T-A...some reports that he was sick. This is acourse that is tailor-made for him, but he ahs yet to collect the flowers. Doesn't look like it will be his year now either... |
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| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
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longslowdistance
Posts:2881
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| 03/20/2019 10:14 AM |
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| Sagan is sooo marked in a finale like this. |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/20/2019 11:11 AM |
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The first photo of the Velonews article (https://www.velonews.com/2019/03/news/sagan-and-valverde-headline-preliminary-milano-sanremo-lineup_489584), wow! Just the thought of laying a road along that near cliff.
Spectacular racing - for the ("m guessing very few) spectators. I can imagine it being pretty miserable for the riders if it was cold, wet and a headwind.
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 03/20/2019 11:47 AM |
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Posted By Frederick Jones on 03/20/2019 10:14 AM
Sagan is sooo marked in a finale like this.
So was Cancellara....he managed a win. 
I think Sagan lacked the tactical skill to win it in the past....the last few years, however, he should have gotten a win. |
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Dale
Posts:1767
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| 03/21/2019 07:16 AM |
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| Two years ago when Kwiatkowski beat Sagan in a three up sprint Sagan did all the heavy lifting in the last few k's including the long slightly uphill Via Roma to the finish line so it was not a surprise that he couldn't cash in. To Ck's point, I think he's been so strong in the past he relied on strength over tactics and the field won't give him the leash as they've done in the past. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/22/2019 10:44 PM |
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This year Sagan can race more tactical with Bennett as fall back for group sprint. Much like the Deceuninck duo of Alaphilipe and Viviana.
MSR is a true lottery though so no prediction is warranted. But Gilbert may be the secret card that will be played. He still wants to win all the monuments. |
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Dale
Posts:1767
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| 03/23/2019 11:56 AM |
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The podium from two years ago finished 1st, 3rd, and 4th this year.
I didn't watch today... I was busy getting my rear end handed to me on a windy 40 mile group ride.
My only consolation is there were people in worse shape than me out there today
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/23/2019 07:00 PM |
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| I thought this was tomorrow. Anyways...did a killer snow hike in Zion so no time anyways. |
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longslowdistance
Posts:2881
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| 03/24/2019 08:42 AM |
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Has Sagan ever really fully recovered from his high speed crash in the Tour las summer?
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/24/2019 02:26 PM |
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| Sagans current somewhat lacking form is due to stomach flu on training camp. But he's getting closer. |
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longslowdistance
Posts:2881
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| 03/24/2019 06:48 PM |
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| Yes, aware of the GI bug, good point. But still, haven't seen him at his old level at any time since July. He might have some permanent muscle and/or nerve damage from that crash. I'll hold the thought through PR. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 03/24/2019 10:00 PM |
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Overall, it wasn’t the best finale for MSR. The pace up the Cipressa was somewhat blunted and they were shoulder to should at one point.
Then when they hit it Poggio, it started slow. Once the action got started, I thought Deceunik had screwed if royally....Stybar was pulling, Alaphilippe was in his wheel and Gilbert was behind him. Stybar pulls over and JA sits up and motions to Gilbert, who just shook his head. “Uh-oh....that ain’t good.” Though JA was gonna be completely exposed....but the best option is sometimes to just rely on your own strength and attack, which is exactly what he did.
Coming off the descent I expected Oss to just get to the front to try and set Sagan up, but he never did. Maybe was too gassed catching on the descent, dunno....
Sagan eventually blew it when he kept looking right before th sprint and the move went to the left. Wasn’t a huge gap, but it was enough for JA to win easily. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 03/25/2019 08:40 AM |
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Hey...whaddya know...I was right!
“I got a little stuck on the front for the sprint. It was a sprint from a low speed. When we opened the sprint, I was looking for Valverde and they passed me on the left and I was on the right. Alaphilippe had two bike lengths and it was hard to get him back.”
While Sagan may or may not had the legs after his stomach problems last week, he made a crucial error by not riding on the barriers so he could control where an attack came from. If you are against the barriers, the attack can only come from one side and you can better respond. Once again, his tactics let him down. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 03/25/2019 08:47 AM |
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Another thought...Wout Van Aert is a stud. Managed to amke the final break, do some (ill-advised) chasing and still finish 6th.
Once he gets some more mileage / enduracne in his legs, he is gonna be a great all-rounder for the Classics. If I am Jumbo-Visma, I am getting him in a GT as soon as possible. |
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Dale
Posts:1767
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| 03/25/2019 11:33 AM |
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...back to one of the earlier points-- Sagan's pure speed, muscle, and acceleration can't compensate for bad tactics.
And no joke about WvA, he's a freaking beast!
Guess all those off-season, 60 minute, all-out training efforts appear to be paying off 
You headed to NW ARK this month or next? |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/25/2019 08:06 PM |
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My best finish move was the 1978 State Champs. (Post head injury. I missed the mid-race break so the top 8 places were way up the road and I didn't go on the final quick hill; another did.) I knew I had to go by the town line sign about a mile from the finish. Road was wide and dead straight with an ample paved parking strip (for the very prestigious Myopia Hunt Club, Essex, MA). Pavement in the parking strip was pristine but there was some glass. Nobody crossed the fog line in our 10 circuits.
So I arranged to be about 2/3s of the way back on the right, guessing every would be looking over their left shoulder. Went at the sign. Up the parking strip. Just the other side of the fog stripe. As I passed the leader, I heard "He's going!" but I was away.
I don't think it crossed anybody's mind someone might actually do that. Big victory for me. Now way I could have placed higher unless I pulled off the move that other rider did. And thinking about it now - if I went and he followed and we made it, he would have near certainly beat me in the sprint. As it was, I beat a bunch of riders I had never beaten in an end game move.
1978 was the year I rode smart. I wasn't strong. I would never race again. But I pulled off a bunch of "best possibles". The year before I was strong as an ox and raced not a whole lot smarter.
Ben
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/25/2019 08:07 PM |
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My best finish move was the 1978 State Champs. (Post head injury. I missed the mid-race break so the top 8 places were way up the road and I didn't go on the final quick hill; another did.) I knew I had to go by the town line sign about a mile from the finish. Road was wide and dead straight with an ample paved parking strip (for the very prestigious Myopia Hunt Club, Essex, MA). Pavement in the parking strip was pristine but there was some glass. Nobody crossed the fog line in our 10 circuits.
So I arranged to be about 2/3s of the way back on the right, guessing every would be looking over their left shoulder. Went at the sign. Up the parking strip. Just the other side of the fog stripe. As I passed the leader, I heard "He's going!" but I was away.
I don't think it crossed anybody's mind someone might actually do that. Big victory for me. Now way I could have placed higher unless I pulled off the move that other rider did. And thinking about it now - if I went and he followed and we made it, he would have near certainly beat me in the sprint. As it was, I beat a bunch of riders I had never beaten in an end game move.
1978 was the year I rode smart. I wasn't strong. I would never race again. But I pulled off a bunch of "best possibles". The year before I was strong as an ox and raced not a whole lot smarter.
Ben
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/25/2019 08:08 PM |
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My best finish move was the 1978 State Champs. (Post head injury. I missed the mid-race break so the top 8 places were way up the road and I didn't go on the final quick hill; another did.) I knew I had to go by the town line sign about a mile from the finish. Road was wide and dead straight with an ample paved parking strip (for the very prestigious Myopia Hunt Club, Essex, MA). Pavement in the parking strip was pristine but there was some glass. Nobody crossed the fog line in our 10 circuits.
So I arranged to be about 2/3s of the way back on the right, guessing every would be looking over their left shoulder. Went at the sign. Up the parking strip. Just the other side of the fog stripe. As I passed the leader, I heard "He's going!" but I was away.
I don't think it crossed anybody's mind someone might actually do that. Big victory for me. Now way I could have placed higher unless I pulled off the move that other rider did. And thinking about it now - if I went and he followed and we made it, he would have near certainly beat me in the sprint. As it was, I beat a bunch of riders I had never beaten in an end game move.
1978 was the year I rode smart. I wasn't strong. I would never race again. But I pulled off a bunch of "best possibles". The year before I was strong as an ox and raced not a whole lot smarter.
Ben
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/25/2019 08:09 PM |
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My best finish move was the 1978 State Champs. (Post head injury. I missed the mid-race break so the top 8 places were way up the road and I didn't go on the final quick hill; another did.) I knew I had to go by the town line sign about a mile from the finish. Road was wide and dead straight with an ample paved parking strip (for the very prestigious Myopia Hunt Club, Essex, MA). Pavement in the parking strip was pristine but there was some glass. Nobody crossed the fog line in our 10 circuits.
So I arranged to be about 2/3s of the way back on the right, guessing every would be looking over their left shoulder. Went at the sign. Up the parking strip. Just the other side of the fog stripe. As I passed the leader, I heard "He's going!" but I was away.
I don't think it crossed anybody's mind someone might actually do that. Big victory for me. Now way I could have placed higher unless I pulled off the move that other rider did. And thinking about it now - if I went and he followed and we made it, he would have near certainly beat me in the sprint. As it was, I beat a bunch of riders I had never beaten in an end game move.
1978 was the year I rode smart. I wasn't strong. I would never race again. But I pulled off a bunch of "best possibles". The year before I was strong as an ox and raced not a whole lot smarter.
Ben
Ben |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/25/2019 08:09 PM |
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My best finish move was the 1978 State Champs. (Post head injury. I missed the mid-race break so the top 8 places were way up the road and I didn't go on the final quick hill; another did.) I knew I had to go by the town line sign about a mile from the finish. Road was wide and dead straight with an ample paved parking strip (for the very prestigious Myopia Hunt Club, Essex, MA). Pavement in the parking strip was pristine but there was some glass. Nobody crossed the fog line in our 10 circuits.
So I arranged to be about 2/3s of the way back on the right, guessing every would be looking over their left shoulder. Went at the sign. Up the parking strip. Just the other side of the fog stripe. As I passed the leader, I heard "He's going!" but I was away.
I don't think it crossed anybody's mind someone might actually do that. Big victory for me. Now way I could have placed higher unless I pulled off the move that other rider did. And thinking about it now - if I went and he followed and we made it, he would have near certainly beat me in the sprint. As it was, I beat a bunch of riders I had never beaten in an end game move.
1978 was the year I rode smart. I wasn't strong. I would never race again. But I pulled off a bunch of "best possibles". The year before I was strong as an ox and raced not a whole lot smarter.
Ben
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/25/2019 08:10 PM |
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My best finish move was the 1978 State Champs. (Post head injury. I missed the mid-race break so the top 8 places were way up the road and I didn't go on the final quick hill; another did.) I knew I had to go by the town line sign about a mile from the finish. Road was wide and dead straight with an ample paved parking strip (for the very prestigious Myopia Hunt Club, Essex, MA). Pavement in the parking strip was pristine but there was some glass. Nobody crossed the fog line in our 10 circuits.
So I arranged to be about 2/3s of the way back on the right, guessing every would be looking over their left shoulder. Went at the sign. Up the parking strip. Just the other side of the fog stripe. As I passed the leader, I heard "He's going!" but I was away.
I don't think it crossed anybody's mind someone might actually do that. Big victory for me. Now way I could have placed higher unless I pulled off the move that other rider did. And thinking about it now - if I went and he followed and we made it, he would have near certainly beat me in the sprint. As it was, I beat a bunch of riders I had never beaten in an end game move.
1978 was the year I rode smart. I wasn't strong. I would never race again. But I pulled off a bunch of "best possibles". The year before I was strong as an ox and raced not a whole lot smarter.
Ben
Ben |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/25/2019 08:13 PM |
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My best finish move was the 1978 State Champs. (Post head injury. I missed the mid-race break so the top 8 places were way up the road and I didn't go on the final quick hill; another did.) I knew I had to go by the town line sign about a mile from the finish. Road was wide and dead straight with an ample paved parking strip (for the very prestigious Myopia Hunt Club, Essex, MA). Pavement in the parking strip was pristine but there was some glass. Nobody crossed the fog line in our 10 circuits.
So I arranged to be about 2/3s of the way back on the right, guessing every would be looking over their left shoulder. Went at the sign. Up the parking strip. Just the other side of the fog stripe. As I passed the leader, I heard "He's going!" but I was away.
I don't think it crossed anybody's mind someone might actually do that. Big victory for me. Now way I could have placed higher unless I pulled off the move that other rider did. And thinking about it now - if I went and he followed and we made it, he would have near certainly beat me in the sprint. As it was, I beat a bunch of riders I had never beaten in an end game move.
1978 was the year I rode smart. I wasn't strong. I would never race again. But I pulled off a bunch of "best possibles". The year before I was strong as an ox and raced not a whole lot smarter.
Ben
Ben |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/25/2019 08:13 PM |
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My best finish move was the 1978 State Champs. (Post head injury. I missed the mid-race break so the top 8 places were way up the road and I didn't go on the final quick hill; another did.) I knew I had to go by the town line sign about a mile from the finish. Road was wide and dead straight with an ample paved parking strip (for the very prestigious Myopia Hunt Club, Essex, MA). Pavement in the parking strip was pristine but there was some glass. Nobody crossed the fog line in our 10 circuits.
So I arranged to be about 2/3s of the way back on the right, guessing every would be looking over their left shoulder. Went at the sign. Up the parking strip. Just the other side of the fog stripe. As I passed the leader, I heard "He's going!" but I was away.
I don't think it crossed anybody's mind someone might actually do that. Big victory for me. Now way I could have placed higher unless I pulled off the move that other rider did. And thinking about it now - if I went and he followed and we made it, he would have near certainly beat me in the sprint. As it was, I beat a bunch of riders I had never beaten in an end game move.
1978 was the year I rode smart. I wasn't strong. I would never race again. But I pulled off a bunch of "best possibles". The year before I was strong as an ox and raced not a whole lot smarter.
Ben
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/25/2019 08:21 PM |
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Posted By Frederick Jones on 03/24/2019 06:48 PM
Yes, aware of the GI bug, good point. But still, haven't seen him at his old level at any time since July. He might have some permanent muscle and/or nerve damage from that crash. I'll hold the thought through PR.
The other aspect may be that he deliberately has a slower start this year. Isn't he targeting racing through to Liege with a more favorable finish this year?
To point of poor tactics, Sagan's main disappointment with himself was finding himself at front and looking at wrong guy. I think there are pluses and minuses to being near barriers.
Certainly with it being a low speed sprint playing to Alaphilipe that's who he should have focused on. Hindsight though. |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/25/2019 11:12 PM |
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Bah! Double post.
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longslowdistance
Posts:2881
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| 04/07/2019 11:46 PM |
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| I lied, not holding back until PR.
Sagan after finishing respectably but no more in the survivors' pack: "I was able to be in the front when it was needed in the final kilometres but I didn't have the legs to counter the attack of Bettiol and challenge in the reduced sprint."
The PS of last year or many years before would have been at the front of that group.
If he was permanently damaged by his fall last summer, (and decision to continue to get that green jersey despite the pain), I see that as a loss for road cycling in general. Unless you are a hardened Belgium or Dutch fanboy, in which case PS out of the podium picture is always good news, regardless of the big picture. But long term big picture there will be more $$ in the sport and more for everyone with a healthy Peter Sagan. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 04/08/2019 07:10 AM |
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I don’t think he was permanently injured...I just think he got the prep wrong this year. Trying to exotend his Soring caampaign to challenge in LBL meant they tweaked the program early, hoping to keep his form later and they just left it too late.
The decent showing at MSR (poor tactics cost him more than his legs), the “panicked” ride at GW and the laughable story about a WB taking out his RD (plus his to school issues at T-A) all inicated that he was close, but just not where he needed to be. |
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| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 04/08/2019 08:40 AM |
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| I dont even think he necessarily got the prep wrong. They intentionally wanted to peak later. But then the stomach flue while on training camp pre tirreno delayed him even further. He's simply behind where he should be. BTW the new Peter Sagan has risen and it's an improved version, more powerful hungrier etc. |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 04/08/2019 01:40 PM |
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If Sagan's flu was anywhere near as draining as the version that has been seen in the NW, he may have taken a much deeper hit than anyone is letting on.
Flu, flue. According to my quick internet search, the only one with stomach issues relating to the flue is Santa.
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 04/08/2019 01:43 PM |
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Double post again! Maybe it is time to upgrade my internet service but I REALLY don't want Comcast and they have a monopoly here.
An observation I have had but that didn't click until I wrote that last post - Sagan has looked "off" to my eyes the past month. (Granrted, just from still photos seen on a cumputer screen.) Pale, heavy, no muscle tone, facial features soft. Click, like a sickness took a deep hit on him.
Ben |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 04/08/2019 02:12 PM |
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Just read the VeloNews piece on Valverde. I had forgotten his age (days from 39) and never knew he only weighed 61 kg (135 lbs). I did notice he rode a really smart race, the race of a seasoned veteran and was there until Bettiol went. Didn't see that at that moment, Valverde was following a rider who was falling off the pace. He said he watched Bettiol go and knew it would take massive amount of work to bridge. Sounds like Valverde felt he was strong enough to go with Bettiol had he been at the front and not behind the wrong wheel at the moment.
Valverde and Bettiol out there for 13k? That would have been fun to watch. And a glorious display of the rainbow jersey. Flip side - it was good to see the premiere Belgium team get 2nd. They earned it. (And fun seeing a rider you would not expect. A podium with no "heavies" on the top two steps?)
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 04/08/2019 02:30 PM |
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Yes Valverde has always been a fly weight. He rode well to keep up although never properly in contention at same time. Same with Sagan, he was there but keeping up, not more. Reports had him gasping for air on Patersberg.
I don't think anyone could have kept up with Bettiol except perhaps van der Poel; had he been there and if he didn't have to give chase after his broken wheel. When van der Poel took a dig on Patersberg he initially thought he was going for glory; van Avermaet had to tell him Bettiol was up ahead.
Deceuninck have to be disappointed with 2nd after their rip roaring start to season. They were never properly in game and their entire deep bench came up short; case of peaking too early in season? Same with Lotto-Visma; not quite the team performance they put on at Gent. Instead, EF played the smart team game with Vanmarcke softening things up knowing full well he couldn't go the distance and Langeveld playing stopper. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 04/08/2019 02:38 PM |
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Nice piece on the winner. He likes to eat, doesn't like training (a bit lazy according to van Avermaet), and gets most of his fitness racing. Sounds like he turned things around a bit last winter with immediate payoff.
https://www.velonews.com/2019/04/news/ef-education-first-finally-scores-with-mamma-di-pasta-bettiol_492300 |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 04/09/2019 12:15 PM |
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Back to Sagan
Instead of injury from that crash, perhaps worth considering that he's become unmotivated. Maybe he is in a mental hole after divorce from his wife +kid. That happened mid-tour last year just before that crash in fact.
Also worth considering that level around him has gone up. For longest time we were just talking about Sky dominance. For past two years, we've added DQS dominance in one day races to that mix. This year Astana and Jumbo-Lotto also seem to have stepped up. I am a bit curious about all of this but that's perhaps a dark side topic. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 04/09/2019 10:11 PM |
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Oh, I think there are plenty of questions to ask about Astana.....given who owns the team and there surge in results this year.
Jumbo-Visma....boy I hope not. I think you can build a case that there has been a slow emergence of them as a team over the last year or so. They played an an active role in both the Giro and Tour last year and I would like to think their performance this year is just a continuation of that growth.
But that is probably hopelessly naive..... |
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longslowdistance
Posts:2881
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| 04/09/2019 10:34 PM |
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OC, thanks for the Sagan personal life info, which I did not know. Sad for him that his personal life has been so troubled. Surely, that can have a major impact on the psyche.
Still waiting for PR, or more thoroughly the next green jersey run.
IMHO, pro cycling is better off with Sagan in top form.
Replay his interview on the podium in Richmond. In broken English after 260km, he made a plea for world peace and understanding. I was in the audience and was simply stunned. He's evolved from an immature talent to a global superstar. |
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