Finally!
Last Post 09/11/2019 06:16 PM by Orange Crush. 36 Replies.
Author Messages
79pmooney

Posts:2167

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08/25/2019 12:11 PM
Valverde does the work to pave the way, Quintana is right there following.  A scenario we've seen how many times?  Quintana gets off with the leaders.  Still according to the well worn script.  Then, with 3k to go, Quintana attacks.  Others hesitate.  And Quintana goes for it!

Now let's see how this plays out.  Quintana has one of the best teams in the race, Movistar, probably the best team captain, Valverde, this is a race well suited for him.  I hope that Valverde can tell him "Go!" at the key moments and he does just that.

Don't break my heart!

Ben
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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08/26/2019 06:46 AM
I’ll give Quintana major props for his move yesterday...both on the climb and in the final 3k. But it also pisses me off because I look back at what he has squandered over the last few years...if he had raced aggressively like this in previous years in July, he may well have been the first Colombian to win a maillot jaune.

Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Orange Crush

Posts:2592

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08/26/2019 07:57 AM
I'd like to think that instead of not trying Quintana simply didn't have it these past years for whatever physical or mental reason. The focus on being first Columbian tour winner may simply have been too much pressure from himself team or the nation. Or he was too tired from all the echelon riding before they hit hills. That's less so in Giro and Vuelta.

Anyway let's see if he can make it stick. Roglic looks determined.
zootracer

Posts:671

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08/26/2019 11:38 AM
Just happy they are showing the Vuelta on tv this year. I miss Paul Sherwen. Bob Roll is o.k. Am I wrong but does he sound like Mr. Rogers on steroids?
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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08/26/2019 11:52 AM
NBCSports Gold is worth every single penny...I never have to hear Phil & Bob.

I regularly drop $50 on dumber stuff....this is a no-brained subscription. Plus, no commercials....just the full race, start to finish. And you can watch it whenever you want.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
6ix

Posts:287

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08/26/2019 12:12 PM
I was really disappointed last year when I realized that the NBC Sports Gold app doesn't hold a library of content. I'd been planning to watch all the races from last season in their entirety while slaving away on the trainer. No dice.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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08/26/2019 01:00 PM
That seems like a fair criticism...have no idea how long they keep individual races available.

Then again, isn’t indoor training why they invented Netflix?
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
zootracer

Posts:671

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08/26/2019 01:27 PM
I don't have NBC Sports Gold. They are showing it for free on NBCSports.
6ix

Posts:287

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08/26/2019 03:16 PM
Maybe NBC Sports is listening (doubtful!) But please consider making all of your races available on-demand. I'd gladly fork over $50-60 for that. Think about it...we no longer have the lovely WCP group to provide VHS and DVD coverage of the Tour. I really miss that. Now if I miss watching the race, I never go to Youtube to search for each stage and then try to find the highlights, etc. Having a nice 4-hour or extended 12-hour version put the whole race into a nice, neat package that I enjoyed watching.
79pmooney

Posts:2167

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08/26/2019 04:34 PM
Posted By Orange Crush on 08/26/2019 07:57 AM
I'd like to think that instead of not trying Quintana simply didn't have it these past years for whatever physical or mental reason. The focus on being first Columbian tour winner may simply have been too much pressure from himself team or the nation. Or he was too tired from all the echelon riding before they hit hills. That's less so in Giro and Vuelta.

Anyway let's see if he can make it stick. Roglic looks determined.

I read years ago that Quntana's other passion was better conditions for the women of his country, that it took up a lot of his time and energy when he was on home soil.  I wonder if that has been a drain on his racing ambitions.  (But the real big picture, the issue of women in 3rd world countries is far bigger than anything any of us do on bicycles.)

On echelon riding - I remember seeing him riding the front in southern France on a very windy day, hanging with the big boys all race and holding his own around riders who dwarfed him.  That was a another Sky dominated Tour but seeing that pint-size guy doing that forever impressed me.  (He was staying out of the wind like a smart rider, but stayed about 3 row the whole time.  That never went to a full rotating echelon; more of a headwind but he stood out as the only non power rider up there.) 
79pmooney

Posts:2167

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08/27/2019 12:12 PM
Spoiler alert!

Well, that was fun. Deceuninck-QuickStep outsmarted Bora-Hansgrohe. Sent a rider up the road 5.5 km from the finish, then got to sit back and let Bora-H work to close it down. Sam Bennett pulls a big "oops!" and takes the long route at a roundabout. Makes a massive effort to make up ground and loses by an inch to D-QS' Fabio Jakobsen.

D-QS; probably the best road smarts out there. Fun to watch!
longslowdistance

Posts:1857

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08/27/2019 08:05 PM
Good analysis, thanks.
Orange Crush

Posts:2592

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08/27/2019 09:47 PM
DQS has excellent road smarts but they are also often sore losers. The TTT being yet another case in point.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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08/28/2019 05:14 AM
According to The Cycling Podcast, that move @ 5.5km was a mistake...he went to the front, came up too fast and just went by everyone...once he got to 100m, QS told him to keep going.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
79pmooney

Posts:2167

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08/28/2019 11:33 AM
Yeah, that was a mistake, but still, great on the fly race management.

And as mistakes go - coming out of a round-a-bout too fast on the short line is a far better mistake than taking the long way around! D-QS seems to regularly have riders in the right place and in good numbers. It isn't often they get caught going the wrong way or trapped. I've never sat at one of their team meetings but I'm guessing that they spend more time teaching race tactics and dynamics than many teams (and probably also look at rider "smarts" as a criteria for who they hire, not just the engine though good engines go a long way to offset lack of smarts. Yesterday's miscue as an example.)
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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09/01/2019 04:25 PM
Good lord....Movistar is a warm bag of vomit. Yeah, it worked out OK today, but they clearly are not a harmonious team.

1) Up until 4K to go, I was thinking regardless of everything else, Quintana and Valverde were riding well together.. classic attack / counter racing.

2) They sent back the one teammate from th break, but rather than just ride tempo to bring back Lopez, Quintana and Valverde are just attacking the group. Dumb....

3) They should have sent Soler back much earlier....and he should never have attacked for the stage. But once he did, I think you gotta roll with it. Never should have been in that situation, but he was so make the best of it.

4) No idea what Valverde was doing chasing...zero.

5) The riders are clearly not fans of Quintana...Soler's actions and Valverde countering once he was clear made their feelings pretty evident.

What a dumpster fire....
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Orange Crush

Posts:2592

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09/02/2019 10:35 AM
I disagree CK.

2. They needed to attack Roglic not just bring Lopez back. You're not going to get Roglic in trouble riding temp.

3. Agreed but hindsight is 20 20. If Soler has more gas left it would have been great timing.

4. See 2. Valverde tried to distance Roglic. They need a 2 prong approach to beat him. Valverde stopped working as soon as Roglic came back. No issue here.

5. Valverde and Quintana seem to work well together last couple stages and are pretty much using same song book vis as vis Roglic. Can't speak for Soler it may just have been disappointment of being called back. But he never have won that stage anyway.
Orange Crush

Posts:2592

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09/02/2019 10:55 AM
Poorer tactics than Movistar yesterday:

1. Astana. Once again a long range attack from Lopez fizzles to nothing. When will they learn? Kid is not going to podium this way.

2. JV dropping Gesink and Powless back only to have them go out back right away leaving Roglic to do much of clawback himself. Kuss came back too late.
Orange Crush

Posts:2592

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09/02/2019 01:00 PM
Roglic crash. That gravel section looked real nasty.

https://twitter.com/Packdeltoro/status/1168435634127720448?s=19
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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09/02/2019 03:04 PM
Posted By Orange Crush on 09/02/2019 10:55 AM
Poorer tactics than Movistar yesterday:

1. Astana. Once again a long range attack from Lopez fizzles to nothing. When will they learn? Kid is not going to podium this way.

2. JV dropping Gesink and Powless back only to have them go out back right away leaving Roglic to do much of clawback himself. Kuss came back too late.


Hmmmm...I actually thought Astana’s team tactics were spot on....Izigarre and then Fuglsang dropped back at the right moments and helped set up Lopez. However, as you note, Lopez’s individual tactics were pretty poor. 20k attacks in this day and age rarely turn out well.

I would have liked to have seen if Lopez could have held it had he not crashed.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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09/02/2019 03:06 PM
Posted By Orange Crush on 09/02/2019 01:00 PM
Roglic crash. That gravel section looked real nasty.

https://twitter.com/Packdeltoro/status/1168435634127720448?s=19


So bummed the signal / feed wS lost for that section....also too bad that a storm of that magnitude hit at the exact moment they were gonna enter the gravel.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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09/03/2019 10:52 AM
Quintana failed once again when the pressure was on....no one expected him to win, but losing over 3' in less than 40K ain't good. He used to be OK against the clock....never great but could minimize the damage. Not today.

Roglic in the driver's seat (obviously)....HUGE time gains against the other favorites. Lopez is probably the biggest threat now....
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Orange Crush

Posts:2592

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09/03/2019 11:41 AM
Roglic' to lose for sure. But week 3 has Valverde written all over it, not Lopez. Predominantly rolling terrain with short pitchy climbs. That said, Roglic showed his mettle on this type of terrain in spring. The only opportunity to displace Roglic may be a not so hard but technical ambush stage.
Dale

Posts:1189

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09/03/2019 03:16 PM
Quintana and Schleck are cut of the same cloth-- they seem to expect everyone to pace them to the front on a steep climb then shoot ahead to take the win while thanking their lucky stars the day ends on a +15% not a -15% grade.

Neither are (were) aggressive other than on those very predictable stages and then only in the last couple of k's.

Boring racers who fail(ed) to live up to the hype.

The only thing they do well is flap their right elbows in an attempt to get someone to relieve them of the awful duty of being at the front for more than 15 seconds.

Valverde must be licking his chops right now.

Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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09/05/2019 05:33 PM
That was a damn good stage today....
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Orange Crush

Posts:2592

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09/06/2019 03:00 PM
Another day where Astana put in a lot of work only for Lopez to cede a minute.

Brutal climb. Both Valverde and Quitana are solid top 4 but lack the extra bit to challenge for win.

Roglic should have this. Pogacar will likely pip Valverde for 2nd spot. Step 3 could still be Valverde, Quintana or Lopez.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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09/06/2019 04:25 PM
Yup....race for the top is over. Only question is how far up Pogacar goes up and who gets reshuffled below him.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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09/08/2019 05:49 PM
Big stage win for Sep Kuss....compare and contrast how Jumbo worked on today’s stage vs Movistar last week w/ Soler. Once Kuss was given his head, he was left to go for the stage win.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Orange Crush

Posts:2592

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09/08/2019 06:05 PM
I'll note that Movistar also did far better and there was no misunderstanding Soler was there to work today.

Major kudos for Kuss on the hand ups in final km. Well done. As to his prospects while he's clearly talented it needs to be seen in context of massive talent pool that's coming to fore so I don't think he'll be a future GT winner.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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09/08/2019 09:38 PM
Were people talking about him as a GT contender? That seems like a pretty big stretch...he is an above-average climber. That doesn’t make him a GT contender....
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
longslowdistance

Posts:1857

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09/08/2019 10:00 PM
He’ll be 25 on Sept 13. Nice early birthday present!
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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09/11/2019 08:35 AM
Movistar gonna Movistar...they have 4 guys in the break with a 5' gap, including Quinatana (+7' down). So who is elading the cahse / trying to blow up the main group behind? Yup....Movistar.

So you have Movistar driving the break trying to stay away from the group of leaders being driven by Movistar.

Unreal.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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09/11/2019 08:48 AM
Side note...yes, I realize the second group has Roglic isolated, but it still perfectly illustrates the dysfunction in that team this year.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Orange Crush

Posts:2592

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09/11/2019 09:11 AM
Sounds like they tried to shatter the chase group getting rid of domestiques which is not a bad tactic per se. Quintana has a huge gap to bridge. If you have a coherent chase group it's not going to work either. Catch 22.
Orange Crush

Posts:2592

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09/11/2019 01:07 PM
This worked out about as well for Movistar as they could have hoped. Roglic was lucky that other teams were working to limit damage for Lopez, Pogacar and Majka.

This was very much a Roglic blunder. JV was entirely up front when the break happened except Roglic.

Whether or not Movistar gained anything for final podium remains to be seen. It sounds like Quintana has a cold, so he may very well go out back door again in two remaining mountain stages.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:2837

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09/11/2019 04:45 PM
Except that Movistar literally burned through their whole team...4 guys driving the break and 3 guys driving the main group. Everyone charging at full power at the same time.

I just found the optics of Movistar driving both groups at the same time hilarious. I realize they had Roglic isolated, but it was Astana's role to chase. Had they not chased, how much more time could Quintana have gained? And yeah, he is leaving the team but then why bother getting him in the break? Whole thing was just weird...
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Orange Crush

Posts:2592

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09/11/2019 06:16 PM
Nah - they only briefly took lead in chase group and sat back up as soon as the hill was over after which it was all Astana again. It made sense to try to isolate not only Roglic but also Lopez further in the chase. Leave them with more domestiques and Quintana's gap is likely less in the end. And in front group they much benefited from DQS driving things with almost their entire team. It was JV who burned their entire team because Roglic was caught napping; those guys were done with 40k to go, after which Astana ended doing most of chasing burning through their support. In the end Lopez tried to jump solo to minimize time loss. I'd say almost perfectly executed by Movistar.


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