Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/17/2022 09:14 PM |
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Who do you have? Gotta be Pogacar right? He seems to be on a mission. Surprise starter will be VDP to fill in for some illnesses. He did ride 2 hrs at 50 kph behind a moto today and barely broke a sweat going by his heart rate. So somewhat ready but probably more training than anything else. But still anextra reason to watch. The illness list among teams is very high. One team with zero riders finishing P-N. And AF needs VDP. It’s early season and they had some results but they’re tumbling in the UCI rankings which could mean trouble for guaranteed starts next year. |
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longslowdistance
Posts:2881
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| 03/18/2022 12:43 AM |
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Picking anyone in the current era is brave, bravo OC! Part of the appeal of the one day races is the unpredictability.
I think all would agree that MSR's long miles and final bumps are much less selective now than in the past, hence it's a lottery amongst the favorites and a large handful of long shots. Podegar's odds may be the best among many, but he likely won't win despite his pure amazingness.
Since this is just for fun, I would have picked Cav. But the bosses didn't pick Cav so I have no clue. |
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Dale
Posts:1767
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| 03/18/2022 08:00 AM |
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Wout. Go bet all your money on him, you'll thank me late tomorrow.
Fun that VdP is in but I doubt he'll figure in on a 300k day. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 03/18/2022 10:01 AM |
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Gotta be Pogacar right?
I can't see it....the course is just not selective enough for him to get away, IMO.
But riders are droppng out left and right...Ewan now out with illness, which really opens things up, IMO.
The big change is Sturyven out....which means Trek is bringing in Pedersen. With his current form, I think he is the guy to watch....prior to that development, I was liking Ganna for a late attack ala Cancellera. |
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| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/18/2022 10:50 AM |
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Agreed LSD, MSR is the lottery of lotteries so picking a favorite is next to impossible. And yes the only way Pog wins is if he drops everyone on the Poggio but there's only 200-300 m of roadway to make that happen. But Pog is Pog, he makes things happen.
The biggest factor helping Wout is Roglic. Ideally JV could play a numbers game or Roglic can pace van Aert to the line. But its always a mad uncontrolled dash to the Via Roma so who knows.
Agreed on Pedersen. I would have also listed Philipsen but he's out as well with illness. Curious how far Jacobsen can get.
VDP has already won the media battle, that's ultimately what it all comes down to right. He's there instead of Saturday training ride. Saying he's better than before Worlds and Roubaix last fall; I think he'll be tip top come Flanders and Roubaix, particular since the latter comes a week later than usual. And Wout just said, if there's one race where you can compete for the win without racing kms, its MSR. Just hide completely until those 200-300 m. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 03/18/2022 12:21 PM |
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I would have also listed Philipsen but he's out as well with illness. Curious how far Jacobsen can get.
Philipsen is out now, too? Fooook.
I thought QS was not bringing Jacobsen....maybe I misheard something on one of the pods I listen to.
ETA - Pog now says he is sick, as well but will still toe the line....but definitely not 100% |
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| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/18/2022 12:46 PM |
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Jakobsen is definitely in and pretty much the only card QS has to play with JA out. They're not bringing Cav.
Upon reading again it sounds like Philipsen is actually in but he's not 100%, he definitely caught something as did so many others. |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/18/2022 01:11 PM |
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Posted By Cosmic Kid on 03/18/2022 12:21 PM
I would have also listed Philipsen but he's out as well with illness. Curious how far Jacobsen can get.
Philipsen is out now, too? Fooook.
I thought QS was not bringing Jacobsen....maybe I misheard something on one of the pods I listen to.
ETA - Pog now says he is sick, as well but will still toe the line....but definitely not 100%
The plan was for Q-S to ride for Alaphillippe but he is out sick so they tossed Jacobsen in. (To emphasize OC point with the names spelled out! Actually didn't study OC's post until after "Submit".)
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2022 09:39 AM |
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It’s on. Massive big screen HD via RAI TV. Beauty day along the coast.
Good quote from VDP at start. MSR is easiest race to be in the mix but hardest to win. The team twisted his arm two days ago. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2022 09:56 AM |
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| Pidcock getting dropped at 37 to go. What’s going on with him? |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2022 10:15 AM |
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| Jakobsen getting shelled on Cipressa but VDP right at sharp end looking composed. He did unzip jersey that’s maybe a sign. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2022 10:36 AM |
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| VDP right in mix on Poggio is massive. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2022 10:44 AM |
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| Well played by Mohoric. VDP does better than last year. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2022 10:50 AM |
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Where the race was won
https://twitter.com/Cyclingtimenews/status/1505207796329074693?t=3MtltmDxlHmuUhPoprG9zw&s=19 |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/19/2022 10:59 AM |
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| Wow! Those who bet their house on Mohoric are set for life. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2022 11:15 AM |
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| Apparently he used a dropper post. Massive risks payed off. Win versus crash was 50/50. He’s been waiting for this opportunity for years and came well prepared. |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/19/2022 11:22 AM |
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| Mohoric pulled off that descent using a dropper post. The next new thing. Drop your butt or get dropped. The seatposts getting laughed at on forums a year ago will the hot new item. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2022 11:34 AM |
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| Something new for UCI to ban. |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/19/2022 04:19 PM |
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Posted By Orange Crush on 03/19/2022 11:34 AM
Something new for UCI to ban.
Except this one makes bikes safer. (Do you ban better rubber for race cars knowing it raises race speeds? Disk brakes that allow racers to approach mountain corners faster?)
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2022 04:30 PM |
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Posted By 79 pmooney on 03/19/2022 04:19 PM
Posted By Orange Crush on 03/19/2022 11:34 AM
Something new for UCI to ban.
Except this one makes bikes safer. (Do you ban better rubber for race cars knowing it raises race speeds? Disk brakes that allow racers to approach mountain corners faster?)
sure everyone in peloton simultaneously monkeying with their dropper posts sounds very safe. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 03/19/2022 05:44 PM |
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Dropper posts are very simple to operate and almost brainless….they can also be programmed into eletronic shifting systems (although I don’t know if DA accommodates it). As Ben noted, it actually makes it safer as it lowers your CG and provides more stability on tight technical descents (and also makes you more aero).
Brilliant tactical move.
seriously impressive ride by MVP….now MSR is often a ride you can bluff your way through, but I don’t think that was the case today. The group got so whittled down on the Cipressa that you had to have the legs to be there.
Still remains the best 30k in bike racing….love this race. |
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| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
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longslowdistance
Posts:2881
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| 03/19/2022 06:15 PM |
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Back to the results and a bigger picture.
Dropper post and other tech not withstanding, Slovenians winning all over the place smells like Tyler winning LBL, LA 7, etc etc.
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Smell test fail. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2022 08:14 PM |
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| The main thing that smelled today was that Pog seemed to somewhat deliberately leave a gap when Mohoric went. I think he realized it wasn’t going to be his day and this was a repayment of service on national team. Still a brilliant and gutsy move but it was fairly evident. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 03/19/2022 09:56 PM |
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Posted By Frederick Jones on 03/19/2022 06:15 PM
Back to the results and a bigger picture.
Dropper post and other tech not withstanding, Slovenians winning all over the place smells like Tyler winning LBL, LA 7, etc etc.
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Smell test fail.
Been saying this for awhile….when any nation has started to dominate results, something has invariably been up. Italy in the 90’s, US in the 00’s, GB in the 20-teens…. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2022 10:23 PM |
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The notion of countries becoming dominant being suspicious is fine (Spain together w Italy in 90s) and there’s Aderlass w Slovenia connections.
But Slovenia has also been going through massive change since it became independent in 91 so I think in part we are seeing results of that.
And what about Belgium hahaha. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2022 10:58 PM |
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| https://journal.rouleur.cc/inside-slovenias-astonishing-rise-to-the-very-top-of-cycling/ |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/19/2022 11:03 PM |
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Posted By Orange Crush on 03/19/2022 10:58 PM
https://journal.rouleur.cc/inside-slovenias-astonishing-rise-to-the-very-top-of-cycling/
I get page not found.
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2022 11:41 PM |
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| Weird I get same link again when I go to that page. But you can Duck Duck INSIDE SLOVENIA’S ASTONISHING RISE TO THE VERY TOP OF CYCLING. That should get you there.
Btw I’ll disagree that dropper posts will make things safer. They can make things safer. But in a racing setting (MTB) they’re being used for competitive advantage increase speed. Higher speed, not safer. Mohoric ride being a case in point. The guy practicing this all winter. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 03/20/2022 07:50 AM |
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I view this the same as things like suspension….it allows you to ride faster while also riding safer. The two terms do not need to be in contrast to each other. They can be complimentary.
That said, I think it is a niche use product. It was perfectly implemented yesterday, as the Poggio descent is so technical. I don’t expect to see droppers infiltrate the peloton in July.
There are also technical limitations…namely, you need a round seatpost. Most pro bikes have a shaped seatpost. Mohoric opted out of an aero road frame in order to use the dropper…again, clearly the right choice in that case, but I don’t know that it indicates mass adoption is gonna happen. |
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| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/21/2022 09:30 AM |
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This just in, manual clock using TV footage
don't usually time descents but I can make an exception this time because I was too curious.😅 Matej Mohoric descended yesterday the Poggio in 3 min 35 sec, average speed of 53.58 km/h! 🙈 For reference, Sean Kelly did 3:47 in 1992 and Nibali 3:49 in 2018. #MilanoSanremo |
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longslowdistance
Posts:2881
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| 03/21/2022 08:48 PM |
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Wow, great analysis!
Tailwind, OK. Other variables?
Can you provide a guestimate of photo motorcycle drafting aid? |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/21/2022 09:05 PM |
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| All difficult to estimate. What is easier to appreciate is the low tech bike Kelly must have been on comparatively. |
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