Contador's options for stage 18 - slight spoiler
Last Post 07/19/2013 11:34 AM by Orange Crush. 43 Replies.
Author Messages
stronz

Posts:307

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07/17/2013 12:53 PM
So now that Berto is in second does he keep the pressure on and try to ally with other interested parties tomorrow and break away the first time up the Alpe, bomb the descent and try to hold off the troops the second time up?

Or does he recognize that sometimes second place in the Tour has a way of becoming first place and ride conservatively?

I'm betting on him staying aggressive
Orange Crush

Posts:1179

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07/17/2013 12:57 PM
I don't think that is a question - Contador only knows how to ride one way and it's what makes him one of the most exciting bike racers out there.

The only question in my mind is whether the tactical game will involve sacrificing Kreuzinger (how?), which might offer a chance for my pick Mollema to climb back on the podium.
jpouchet

Posts:81

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07/17/2013 01:08 PM
Don't see how Contador can possibly hope to bridge the time gap but mechanicals do happen. Let's see if anyone on Saxo shows up with a frame pump tomorrow! That tactic may work.
bobswire

Posts:290

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07/17/2013 01:08 PM
One thing about Berto, it's not in his DNA to ride conservatively but Froome is not like Rodriguez and I doubt Froome will give any quarter for Berto to do what he did against Rodriguez in the Vuelta last year.
BUT anything can happen.........
RNDDUDE

Posts:78

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07/17/2013 01:14 PM
I predict fireworks tomorrow, stay tuned...
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistant one. -Albert Einstein
stronz

Posts:307

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07/17/2013 01:19 PM
Is Kreuziger a good descender? One thing saxo could do, OC, is have AC go up the road on Alpe#1 and then have Kreuziger bridge to him on the descent and see if AC and RK can hold off Froome on the 2nd time up. Of course they could do that in reverse too -- have Kreuziger attack on the first climb and see if Froome counters. Contador and Kreuziger trading attacks could easily wear Froome down to the point where he is in no mood to push things on the descent and lets them gain a few minutes.
pikeHillRoad

Posts:95

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07/17/2013 01:43 PM
I am going with Mikc Rogers and some other Saxo guys going in the early break. Attacks from Bert or Roman coming on the Ornon before the first Alpe. Whoever does not go is there to counter.

Other teams in on that game: Belkin? Garmin? Movistar?

Sure, that will happen, that's why I am some stooge in an office...

It would be exciting though.
spok

Posts:4

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07/17/2013 02:13 PM
I think Contador is much more likely to try something on Friday's stage.

To be successful, Saxo has to isolate Froome early on, force him to work and hopefully overextend himself. I just don't see how they do that tommorrow. It does Contador no good to attack on the first ascent of the Alpe if Kennaugh and Porte are still with Froome.

On Friday's stage, Saxo could send Rogers with the early break on the Glandon, have Contador attack and go full gas up the Madeilline. Kruez could just follow wheels. That could potentially leave Froome by himself for the remainder of a long stage.


CERV

Posts:151

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07/17/2013 02:46 PM
The main thing that throws a wrench in a lot of these plans for saxo is that other GC riders ARE racing for 2nd place. If RK goes up the road, given his place in GC, other podium hopefuls are going to want to bring it back. Froome and Porte can most likely just wait for a wheel to pull them back.

At this point it seems to me like saxo's best bet as a team is to have both AC and RK fuly willing to sacrifice to help the other, and let the cards fall. If it is obvious that they are racing only for AC, that changes other riders' responses.
spok

Posts:4

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07/17/2013 02:52 PM
I don't know, the time gaps are pretty big from Contador/Kreuz back to Mollema/Quintana now. I'm not sure Moviestar and Belkin do the chasing if Contador goes up the road.

I doubt that Saxo send Kreuz. I very much doubt that he wants to risk his podium place swinging for the fences. Contador on the other hand, I think, is more than willing to.
jmdirt

Posts:699

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07/17/2013 03:01 PM
This is what I posted in the tactics thread a few days ago:

"There is still some important racing between now and then but I wonder if anyone will try to go long on the first ascent of L'Alpe d'Huez, descend like il Falco, and then attack L'Alp again? I know that's a ~60K move but it could work with two or three guys since its a climb, descent, climb.

The other thought is trying to gain half of the time deficit on AdH and the other half on stage 20 but that's a big gamble as well. "

I'm sticking with that. If AC really doesn't care if he gets 2nd or 10th he needs to go for it. RK can just sit and watch. If AC blows to the moon, then RK moves up to the second step and Saxo-Tinkov still has a good TdF result.
Orange Crush

Posts:1179

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07/17/2013 03:05 PM
I'd tend to agree with Spok that Friday may be better than tomorrow. Tomorrow should be focused on tiring the sky train and then try to isolate Froome early on Friday. Note that Porte likely took it easy today whereas Kreuziger went hard so tomorrow Sky may have a leg up on Saxo in terms of freshness.
jmdirt

Posts:699

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07/17/2013 04:40 PM
Its important to think about the amount of time that AC needs. There is little chance that he could gain it in one stage.
stronz

Posts:307

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07/17/2013 04:42 PM
Floyd did it. Oh wait...
longslowdistance

Posts:665

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07/17/2013 05:02 PM
I was thinking the same thing. It was beautiful when it happened. Sigh
CERV

Posts:151

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07/17/2013 05:17 PM
Posted By Justin jmdirt on 07/17/2013 04:40 PM
Its important to think about the amount of time that AC needs. There is little chance that he could gain it in one stage.


Hard to say. I think we might be seeing the results of some classic "2nd rest day tactics" by the Saxo and the Spanish. Interesting to see what AC and RK look like tomorrow compared to froome. (maybe this should be in the dark side)
Inferno7

Posts:261

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07/17/2013 10:55 PM
I'm hoping the Spanish Armada launches their collective guns on Porte, and Froome.
JS

Posts:61

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07/17/2013 11:11 PM
Reading between the lines it appears SKY has no friends in the bunch. I'm thinking most riders are of the "anybody but SKY" mentality and may be willing to sell out (figuratively) for that option.
durielk

Posts:41

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07/17/2013 11:44 PM
I see an armada forming as the only way to unseat Froome. If AC/ST team strikes a pact with Movistar or Katusha to let them go on the first climb, they can make a run for it. If Sky does not follow, they will move to 2nd & third, possibly. If Sky follows, AC/ST attacks on 2nd climb, may the best man win. Or AC attacks on first climb/ Movistar/Katusha gets the second climb. ..................................
But it works better the first way, as Sky will not let AC away. But if Quin or Rod gets 3 min back, Sky have to scramble...............................
Either way Sky must react. If they don't form an alliance, this race is done.
Keith Richards

Posts:735

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07/18/2013 08:21 AM
Really aggressive today!
----- It is his word versus ours. We like our word. We like where we stand and we like our credibility."--Lance Armstrong.
jrt1045

Posts:361

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07/18/2013 09:06 AM
weird to see the yellow jersey shutting down gaps to start the stage
Keith Richards

Posts:735

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07/18/2013 09:10 AM
Yeah, move the pawns before exposing the king. Weird stuff going on out there.

Saxo has their pieces in the right place on the board. But can the execute?
----- It is his word versus ours. We like our word. We like where we stand and we like our credibility."--Lance Armstrong.
Yo Mike

Posts:263

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07/18/2013 09:41 AM
A-hole fans. Where are the gendarmes? Why aren't they issued tasers / cattle prods?
Entheo

Posts:317

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07/18/2013 09:59 AM
a cyclist's mecca; loved doing that climb...

longslowdistance

Posts:665

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07/18/2013 10:07 AM
Not what I expected so far . . .
Orange Crush

Posts:1179

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07/18/2013 10:09 AM
I saw Moser's name the other day and was wondering what he was doing in Tour.

Things going Skys way so far, just tempo
Entheo

Posts:317

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07/18/2013 10:09 AM
bad luck for tj
Keith Richards

Posts:735

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07/18/2013 10:13 AM
Whoa...that descent is incredible!!!!!
----- It is his word versus ours. We like our word. We like where we stand and we like our credibility."--Lance Armstrong.
Entheo

Posts:317

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07/18/2013 10:15 AM
caution is prevailing on the descent of the sarrone nevermind... there goes AC!
Yo Mike

Posts:263

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07/18/2013 10:17 AM
and some raindrops? Yikes!
Entheo

Posts:317

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07/18/2013 10:19 AM
the second time up should be pure magic
jrt1045

Posts:361

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07/18/2013 11:06 AM
Porte bridges then stretches it out, ok then
Entheo

Posts:317

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07/18/2013 12:09 PM
porte needs to move to the new Trek team and become the GC guy because he is.
jrt1045

Posts:361

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07/18/2013 12:20 PM
color me skeptical
Entheo

Posts:317

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07/18/2013 12:24 PM
Posted By j t on 07/18/2013 12:20 PM
color me skeptical


you don't think porte's a GC contender?
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1105

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07/18/2013 01:38 PM
Epic stage...great racing. Oh-So-close for Teejay, Froome finally cracks, but too late for AC to do anything about it, race for the podium tightens.

Froome needs to learn how to race like a leader. Chasing down early attacks and then attacking on l'Alpe when he did not need to. Net result is that he coulda lost massive time today. He was lucky that AC had already gambled and lost.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
jmdirt

Posts:699

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07/18/2013 02:57 PM
AC options now...keep attacking.
Orange Crush

Posts:1179

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07/18/2013 03:12 PM
ACs move was tactial suicide today; no way that was going to work. I think he's done with options and can only hope to consolidate 2nd spot.

Movistar looks to be the team that could still bring some excitement over next 2 days.

Froome looking patently human today (and yesterday). Still on fence.
jpouchet

Posts:81

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07/18/2013 03:51 PM
+1 OC - yes he looked human. Very close to a 'bonk' and fine or no fine that was a smart move to get some fuel into his body in the last 10 k. Too bad TeJay didn't grab a few hundred grams of Carbs and 200 mg of caffine when he had his mechanical tended to. Well if he did, it didn't show. That poor guy was totally spent in the last 5k. Willpower alone to even come in 2nd.
Entheo

Posts:317

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07/18/2013 04:01 PM
feel bad for TJ -- so close to immortality. he'll probably lay awake tonight thinking 'if only my bike hadn't f'd up'.
CERV

Posts:151

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07/18/2013 09:23 PM
Posted By Orange Crush on 07/18/2013 03:12 PM
ACs move was tactial suicide today; no way that was going to work. I think he's done with options and can only hope to consolidate 2nd spot.

Movistar looks to be the team that could still bring some excitement over next 2 days.

Froome looking patently human today (and yesterday). Still on fence.


I still don't understand exactly what happened with the bike change, etc. I'll have to watch again. AC and RK were off the front, then suddenly off the back chasing back to the yellow group? Did Ac do two bike changes? I wonder if his bike was not within the weight limit and he knew it?
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1105

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07/18/2013 09:54 PM
He made two changes....started on one bike, sketched to another at some point and then finished on the first bike.

Even if he thought he was pulling a fast one, it didn't matter. UCI weighed both bikes and they were at the weight limit. However, not all the bikes were weighed immediately, nor were they quarantined at the end of the race. Sme bikes weren't tested until 45' after the finish. Plenty of tme for wrenches to add weight, if it was necessary.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
jookey

Posts:139

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07/18/2013 10:15 PM
This stage was EPIC. Loved the decent. Climbs are tough. Why not make descents tough as well. They should do it again in the future. How about a circuit race? No flats. Just do it four times...
Orange Crush

Posts:1179

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07/19/2013 11:34 AM
Today was a bit of a snoozer; bummer.

Good to see Mollema rebound after 2 days of struggling with illness (reported fever) that cost him the podium.


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