stage 10 spoiler
Last Post 09/13/2013 05:07 PM by Coup de Pedale. 55 Replies.
Author Messages
steelbikerider

Posts:44

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09/02/2013 12:00 PM
another one for the old guy. Chris gives us hope. I wish he could have put his act together about 15 years ago. He would have a couple of classic wins and some impressive GT performances. Of course he would also have a stronger link to the past PED riders.
jrt1045

Posts:362

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09/02/2013 12:47 PM
Not falling for this fairy tale

41 and suddenly a grand tour contender? Sorry to be a wet blanket
Ride On

Posts:452

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09/02/2013 01:15 PM
I bet Levi just kicked the couch and yelled Fxxx NO.

Lets see. If I tell the truth I'm out of a job. If I don't I get to continue doing what I love to do and get paid for it.

Sure sure I know it's the right thing to do, but come on. Hard choice yes, but I suspect most of us would choose one over the other for ourselves. Easy enough to tell others what to do, but when faced with it mamas got to eat you know.

Travis get your phone out and start making some calls. I'm sure someone has an axe to grind.
jookey

Posts:141

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09/03/2013 02:05 AM
Omertà...
JS

Posts:61

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09/03/2013 02:19 AM
Lets be fair, the talent in this Vuelta is pretty low. Basso, A tired Nibali, J-rod and Valverde and thibot pinot are who he's up against.
79pmooney

Posts:1189

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09/03/2013 02:41 AM
To add to JS's comment, this Vuelta has also been taylor made for Horner. He is not making his gains in places that would surprise anyone.

I have never especially cared for the guy, but I have to admit he has bike abilities similar to mine except about 10 times more. Better after everyone is really whipped. Best when going up, the steeper the better. All skinny arms and legs with a shortish torso that won't win over any girls. Sadly I can relate big time.

Ben
bobswire

Posts:303

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09/03/2013 08:48 AM
Posted By 79 pmooney on 09/03/2013 02:41 AM
To add to JS's comment, this Vuelta has also been taylor made for Horner. He is not making his gains in places that would surprise anyone.

I have never especially cared for the guy, but I have to admit he has bike abilities similar to mine except about 10 times more. Better after everyone is really whipped. Best when going up, the steeper the better. All skinny arms and legs with a shortish torso that won't win over any girls. Sadly I can relate big time.

Ben

Exactly,the only difference I have with Ben's analysis Is, I really like Horner, one my favorite cycling personalities. Seems to keep things in perspective with a smile.

Cosmic Kid

Posts:1173

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09/03/2013 09:54 AM
I've said it before and I'll say it again.....you don't suddenly become a GT contender @ 41. No way, no how, nuh-uh.

This doesn't even come close to passing the sniff test. I have been pretty adamant about not making assertions on a rider's cleanliness just based on performance alone. But c'mon.....a guy who is widely believed to be rider #15 in the Reasoned Decision suddenly starts contesting the overall in a GT?

Ummmm....how about "No fookin' way."
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
jrt1045

Posts:362

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09/03/2013 10:22 AM
from this day forth I will refer to the rider formerly known as Chris Horner as...Quinceañera

bobswire

Posts:303

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09/03/2013 10:31 AM
Posted By Cosmic Kid on 09/03/2013 09:54 AM
I've said it before and I'll say it again.....you don't suddenly become a GT contender @ 41. No way, no how, nuh-uh.

This doesn't even come close to passing the sniff test. I have been pretty adamant about not making assertions on a rider's cleanliness just based on performance alone. But c'mon.....a guy who is widely believed to be rider #15 in the Reasoned Decision suddenly starts contesting the overall in a GT?

Ummmm....how about "No fookin' way."

Yeah, so what? no one I see is really arguing. At this point at least for me, I care less about who or who isn't.
But as Ben stated, Horner has always been a good climber the steeper the better with his relentless out of the saddle style,not fast just consistent. Stage 10 was badly played by the rest of the GC contenders letting him motor away at the 5km mark. By the time nibali realized, it was too late. That was only way Horner was going to win, had he waited until 2 km like they usually do, he wouldn't  have won. It worked out perfectly for Horner, doping or no.
Orange Crush

Posts:1234

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09/03/2013 11:43 AM
Don't know who's on the dopa and who isn't but didn't see anything particularly out of the ordinary yesterday, unless of course you consider a geezer being in the lead out of the ordinary. But bear in mind, they are calling this the old guy's Vuelta for a reason, guys like Rodriguez aren't getting any younger either.

To me it seems to come down to Horner being the freshest of them all due to late season start but that will no longer be the case in week 3. Nibali will likely be a lot closer after tomorrow already and in the end I think he will grab the overall.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1173

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09/03/2013 02:54 PM
Yeah, if you are not concerned about doping in the sport, then feel free to cheer on. We can agree to disagree on that point. A POV that I don't necessarily subscribe to, but can certainly understand why others do.

@ OC - I do consider a geezer being in the lead as "out of the ordinary." Horner is the oldest guy to both win a stage and wear a leader's jersey in a GT. Given the doping past of the sport, that strikes me as EXTREMELY unusual, especially given that he has never been able to contest a GT in the past.

There is a bird present and it is quacking and waddling. I'm willing to call it a duck. ;-)
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Dale

Posts:514

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09/03/2013 03:23 PM
My eyebrows were raised a bit at his performance but he did arrive at this race lot fresher than the rest of the field. Not sure if that explains it, not sure if he juiced in the past or if he's on some secret sauce now but the old guard has a funny smell about it even if it's just second-hand stink.
Orange Crush

Posts:1234

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09/03/2013 04:05 PM
CK - just generally speaking the age barrier being broken is not one I am very surprised about given how we are evolving. In my mind this was bound to happen sooner rather than later.

But when guys flying up a hill at speeds similar to the era of rabid doping get rationalized away with "at some point clean guys were going to catch up with dirty guys, that is evoluton", it makes my eyes roll a little.

So I think when it comes to doping, there are more fruitful avenues to pursue than the duck that's waddling. Maybe the duck that pretends its a hawk.
bobswire

Posts:303

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09/03/2013 04:11 PM
it's not like it came out of nowhere, ToU final results:

1, Thomas Danielson (Team Garmin Sharp) 23 hours 5 mins 45 secs
2, Christopher Horner (RadioShack Leopard) at 1 min 29 secs
3, Janier Alexis Acevedo Calle (Jamis-Hagens Berman) at 1 min 37 secs
4, Lucas Euser (UnitedHealthcare Pro Cycling) at 2 mins 2 secs
5, Matthew Busche (RadioShack Leopard) at 2 mins 6 secs
6, Philip Deignan (UnitedHealthcare Pro Cycling) at 2 mins 27 secs
7, Michael Schaer (BMC Racing Team) at 3 mins 11 secs
8, Carter Jones (Bissell Pro Cycling) at 3 mins 49 secs
9, Francisco Mancebo Perez (5-Hour Energy p/b Kenda) at 3 mins 50 secs
10, Tiago Machado (RadioShack Leopard)

Up to this point the stages he won are not that suspicious, especially considering he used the ToU to get ready for this race. Knowing USADA monitored the ToU I doubt they'd of given him a pass if they had found any irregularities.
So until someone comes up something more than their own gut feelings I'll give him a pass.
I'm not cheering on doping I'm saying I could care less,there are folks much more capable than us who now monitor these racer. I'll leave it to them.
The new sheriffs in town are no longer looking the other way.
jrt1045

Posts:362

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09/03/2013 04:39 PM
Utah isn't exactly prime time in the whole scheme of things
nightfend

Posts:48

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09/03/2013 05:12 PM
I do not think Horner is the only one doping. I don't really believe any of the top 5 are clean. Horner is simply a good climber who is finally being given a Captain's role and allowed to go for stage wins. This has only been the case the last 3 years or so. Before that he was a domestique that was paid to help others.

And, let's face it, he has had really awful luck being taken down by other riders in crashes. Two years ago when he crashed at the TdF and had the concussion, he was flying! Anyone remember the climb at ToC that year?
pabiker

Posts:80

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09/03/2013 08:26 PM
While it is likely true that we are continually evolving. It is certainly not happening at a pace that would make a difference in a sport that is less than 200 years old.

Most of the gains you are likely referring to are not evolutionary, but due to changes in our environment such as: better diet, medical care, improved working conditions, more leisure time, equipment and training.

The evolutionary changes in the last 10,000 years or so are miniscule.

I'll 2nd that comparing the Vuelta to ToU doesn't make sense. After all, Tommy D won the ToU.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1173

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09/03/2013 09:04 PM
Bob, I wasn't saying you were cheering on the doping.....I meant you were cheering on the racing. I fully get we have a differ perspective n doping in the sport, and I don't think either of us will change the other's mind. Which is fine w/ me!!

And like others have said, the ToU is not even close to the Vuelta. Utah is a glorified domestic race, not even close to the caliber of the Vuelta.

The greatest cyclists in the history of the sport were not able to reverse the effects of Father Time, but somehow Horner has found the fabled "Fountain of Youth" and is now able to do things he couldn't do when he was 10 years younger.

Things that make you go "Hmmmmmm....."

Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
bobswire

Posts:303

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09/03/2013 09:06 PM
Show me where I compared it to the Vuelta PA? I said he used it for training at altitude, no straw dogs allowed. It would be like me calling you out for saying you raced against Ben King rather than King happened to be participating in a race you did. Get my drift? The older I get the crankier I get so you better watch your manners around me.

Cool video of the new bike path on the Eastern Side of the Bay Bridge. 
HERE

Yo Mike

Posts:276

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09/03/2013 09:14 PM
+1 PA on evolution

Horner is in contract drive mode since he is not yet signed by TREK for 2014. Horner on the podium at the Vuelta and winning at the Worlds in Florence should seal the deal for him, one way or the other.

Zoltemelk did it at age 39. Horner may be equally amazing at 41.
pabiker

Posts:80

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09/03/2013 09:16 PM
BS Bob, you posted that top 10 GC from ToU showing that Horner "didn't come from out of nowhere". That top 10 that also included Jamis and 5-hour Energy riders - no exactly top shelf competition.

I absolutely did race against Ben King and Joe Dumbrowski - mass start race, no categories, no BS.

If I felt so inclined I coulda cranked up to their group for a couple miles of road at the start - kinda like the TdF fans with antler helmets running by the pros, but that's not my style.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1173

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09/03/2013 10:00 PM
Posted By Michael Merva on 09/03/2013 09:14 PM
+1 PA on evolution

Horner is in contract drive mode since he is not yet signed by TREK for 2014. Horner on the podium at the Vuelta and winning at the Worlds in Florence should seal the deal for him, one way or the other.

Zoltemelk did it at age 39. Horner may be equally amazing at 41.


Are we seriously now comparing Horner to Joop? If so, let's compare their palamares up to that point as well. Not even close to being the same.....
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Orange Crush

Posts:1234

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09/03/2013 10:07 PM
Posted By pa biker on 09/03/2013 08:26 PM
While it is likely true that we are continually evolving. It is certainly not happening at a pace that would make a difference in a sport that is less than 200 years old.

Most of the gains you are likely referring to are not evolutionary, but due to changes in our environment such as: better diet, medical care, improved working conditions, more leisure time, equipment and training.

The evolutionary changes in the last 10,000 years or so are miniscule.
Yes, evolving as in how we live, not as in being further removed from our monkey cousins. This will take a bit longer.

He may very well be #15, but just like some push the envelope at young age, the Sagan's and Moreno Moser's of this world, there's also the notion of late bloomers. Give me some hope CK!

And who says he's a GT contender? So far he's done a great 1 week race, which can be accounted for by his relative freshness, and is within his tool set. If he keeps this up for another 2 weeks, then you certainly have my raised eyebrow. But I strongly doubt it.

Cosmic Kid

Posts:1173

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09/03/2013 10:35 PM
Agreed 100% on your last paragraph.....I am getting accused of "mental gymnastics" on ST for daring to int out that there are still 2 weeks to go and he isn't really "contending"....yet.

Look at Ritchie Porte in July....lying a strong 2nd at about the same point in time. He then blows up and disappears from the GC. Sure, he was a domestique, but the point is that being high in the GC after one week ain't the same thing as being high in the GC during the third week.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
RNDDUDE

Posts:78

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09/04/2013 12:52 AM
I will throw this out just because no one has said it, could it be because most of these guys who used to beat him frequently in the past aren't now, because they also aren't doping like they used to?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistant one. -Albert Einstein
CERV

Posts:151

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09/04/2013 02:11 AM
Cycling never fails to disappoint. i'm finding this whole Vuelta to be quite entertaining. Most of the credit for that has to be given to Horner.
Seeing an 'almost 42' year old (I love how often it's reported as that, instead of as a 41 year old) win a GT would be pretty awesome.

As far as 'believability' goes, I would still rate this as more believable than Froome, for whatever that's worth. Horner's at least been present in the last group standing on a lot of big climbs for a lot of years.
Yo Mike

Posts:276

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09/04/2013 07:08 AM
@CK

I guess I should have added

/sarcasm

at the end of my previous post.

NO WAY does Horner approach Joop Z, except in maybe one way: Joop was not pure as the driven snow himself.

Horner's recent success: contract drive, late season start, perhaps some underestimation by the peloton, and undeniably considerable talent........but he's not gonna win the Vuelta any more than he's gonna wear WC stripes.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1173

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09/04/2013 08:57 AM
@ Yo Mike - gotcha, my bad.

@ rnddude - I get the theory but it breaks down fr a few reasons. 1) that means that Horner is / was a special talent that even at the age if 41 he can beat guys 10 years younger, who are in the prime of their careers. 2) Horner is widely believed to have been Rider #15. 3) add the two together - if he was such a special talent and he was rider 15, then why didn't he crush everyone earlier?
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Orange Crush

Posts:1234

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09/04/2013 11:21 AM
I am guessing Horner did Nibali a big favor with the Stage 10 win and leader's jersey or maybe Nibali played it that way (in which case hats off to him). Horner and Co get to enjoy that red jersey most likely through week 2 while Nibali saves his troops for Stage 14-16 where the real pecking order will be established. THat is of course unless Horner loses that jersey today already as he seems to have predicted himself I now read.

Cerv - agree.
Keith Richards

Posts:755

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09/04/2013 11:58 AM
I am not going to discount Horner only because of his tactical chops.

I have always said that road bike racing is not supposed to be JUST a watts contest. Horner played them well by attacking early. If he had waited until 2k to go, he probably would have lost time.

I am not questioning his performance at this point. If he were to hold on for the win...I will then cast the ole side-eye.
----- It is his word versus ours. We like our word. We like where we stand and we like our credibility."--Lance Armstrong.
nightfend

Posts:48

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09/04/2013 01:19 PM
Okay, so if Horner is heavily doping, what exactly is he taking that is so magically better than everyone else? And why didn't he take this same magic juice years ago? That's what I'd like to know. Maybe, just maybe, he was always a talented climber and just had a lot of bad luck and/or was forced into a domestique role where he couldn't vye for a high GC placing.
79pmooney

Posts:1189

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09/04/2013 02:07 PM
nightfend, Horner is like me, only 10 times better. Built to go uphill, great endurance. I knew in my racing days that had I been 10 times better, I could have finished a grand tour, maybe won a stage or two, maybe even wear the GC jersey, but I could never win it. I don't know if Horner is doping. But I think the scenario that he isn't and hasn't is plausible. Now we see him at his best (for his age). But he has, in my opinion, about zero chance of winning this thing and not a whole lot better if he had not tanked (quite predictably) today.

10 years ago, a younger, stronger clean Horner would have been just pack fodder in the EPO fueled cycling world. And, I believe that is what I recall seeing. And winning a GT then would have been nearly as unlikely as now even if the peleton was clean then. Horner is like me; a mountain goat Mountain goats don't win tours..

Ben
BikeCzar

Posts:53

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09/04/2013 06:27 PM
this thread is everything that is wrong with pro cycling. Enjoy the show. Unless you have overwhelming proof, then chill out and let the rest of us enjoy it at least. f-in soap opera.

on evolution - look at the size and strength of people today compared to people in the 1950s. look at the intellectual capacity of people today compared to the 1950s.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1173

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09/04/2013 11:32 PM
LOL....this thread is everything is wrong with professional cycling? A tinly sliver of the internet is what is wrong with professional cycling? Seriously? OK then.....what was that about soap operas?

And last time I checked, no one is stopping you from enjoying it. have at it....feel free to ignore any comments that detract from your enjoyment. YOU control your enjoyment, not anyone else.

Agreed with keith....everything horner has done so far is not outside the realm of belief. he has proven he has the capability to contest 7-10 day stage races. But if he is still contending on the third week? yeah, I'm calling bullschitt.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Orange Crush

Posts:1234

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09/05/2013 12:16 AM
Posted By Cosmic Kid on 09/04/2013 11:32 PM


Agreed with keith....everything horner has done so far is not outside the realm of belief. he has proven he has the capability to contest 7-10 day stage races. But if he is still contending on the third week? yeah, I'm calling bullschitt.

I am pretty sure you called bull on page 1 of this thread; or was that mental gymnastics

After today he's perhaps already an ex-contender, although swallowing that bee must not have helped.

Too bad this article never was translated in English - scroll down to the table. It seems to confirm my feelings on LeTour.

http://www.lemonde.fr/sport/article/2013/07/21/tour-de-france-juan-pat-aidez-nous-a-comprendre-l-exceptionnel_3450751_3242.html

Someone move this thread to the darkside where it belongs
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1173

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09/05/2013 12:29 AM
Meh....I got ahead of myself. I kinda expected him to fade before his last stage win. ;-)

Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Scanz

Posts:6

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09/12/2013 12:13 PM
OK. Are you calling Bullschitt? I have to say. This sure is a fun one to watch. I'll take this Vuelta over the Froomefest in July anytime!
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1173

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09/12/2013 12:52 PM
Yeah, I'm calling bullschitt at this point. Sorry, 41 YO riders don't suddenly blossom into GT riders, even one that is lower on the pecking order like the Vuelta.

It simply defies everything we know about human performance......even if you take the stance that he was a (clean) exceptional rider whose potential was minimized by everyone doping around him, it still doesn't add up. Add in that he is widely regarded as Rider #15 and it makes even less sense.

I was never a Horner fan when he was dominating the US circuit....too whiny and his issues were always laid at the feet of his sponsors. I become a fan when he went back to Europe because of his grit.....but now.....sorry. Been duped way too many times.

Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Orange Crush

Posts:1234

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09/12/2013 01:47 PM
This Vuelta is certainly a lot more entertaining than the lap around France.

Can we believe it? Hard to say. Horner is an old dude and there's questions around him but he's also the only one entering this race fresh with his first peak of season. Nibali's power numbers have been dropping so that is one clear reason why the race is developing as it is. Its interesting that the Spanish contigent seems to be finding its 2nd wind in the 3rd week as they also seemed to do in LeTour. That part seems counterintuitive.

I'm enjoying the race, that's all that is for sure. And heck, my pick for overall salvaging the Vuelta yesterday does not hurt.
Oldfart

Posts:489

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09/12/2013 01:50 PM
Late bloomers are athletes that take up a sport late in their age. Not athletes that have been riding pro for a long long time. I do know guys that started local mountain bike racing in their late 30's. They were OK at first but developed over the years into guys that won world masters world champions. But not world elite pro champions. Maybe if those guys had started when they were in their teens. I find it hard to believe that a 41 year old can become a grand tour challenger. Sure Nibali may be tired still from the Giro and a year of racing while Horner "rested" with injury. Sure Horner may be extra hungry to win so that he gets a contract with a team. Maybe he was always good and clean but only shows well because every other rider is also now clean. Yeah the Vuelta is not the Giro let alone a TdF. But 41? Really?
jmdirt

Posts:731

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09/12/2013 03:24 PM
Cosmic,

I called Chinook on this yesterday so I'll call you today: "It simply defies everything we know about human performance." Give us some data, numbers, facts, what do we know?

I won't defend CH because I have no way of knowing what he does or doesn't do (I know there are lots of "facts" on the WWW). But claiming that a 41 year old can't compete with younger guys is not based on fact. The main reason performance declines with age is due to a decline in endocrine function.

Cycling fans have the right to be suspicious because cycling has been dirty for about 100 years and friggin' rank for the last 20 but speculating using generalizations doesn't get us anywhere.

If you want to argue that CH shouldn't be able to do what he is doing, age isn't the big red flag, his long list of injuries is. While endocrine system function is the main factor, injuries are also a big factor.
Oldfart

Posts:489

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09/12/2013 03:33 PM
In defence of Cosmic, how many 41 year old pro cyclists are competitive? The best GT riders tend to be late twenties early thirties. Lots of things decline as a person ages. Recovery and drive are two that I think are natural declinations that we all go through some more some less but it is unavoidable. I am skeptical of CH's performance but will give him the benefit of the doubt because I am sure he has been and is getting tested very frequently and until there is a negative finding, he's clean.
jmdirt

Posts:731

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09/12/2013 03:41 PM
Very few...one that I can think of now. Recovery declines as the endocrine function declines. Drive is part of the mental aspect that is also a big factor (and can also be effected by endocrine function).

My point is that it doesn't defy what we know about human performance.
No need to defend Cosmic, he's been around a long time and knows that his statement isn't accurate but he's jaded like most of us.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1173

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09/12/2013 04:31 PM
jm-

Here are a few studies to look at.

http://www.maynardlifeoutdoors.com/2012/02/age-and-athletic-ability.html

Conclusion - peak performance occurs at 30 and declines slightly until 40 and then rapidly after that.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2267663/

"The average difference in performance for a 1-year increment in age increased throughout the age groups. This difference was twice as great at 40 years as at age 20 years and 4.5-times greater at 80 years of age." Note - this used swimming as the exercise model. Another quote - " In samples of 319 male and 321 female elite swimmers followed prospectively for 12 years, Tanaka et al. analyzed the effect of age on championship performance times in 50-m and 1500-m freestyle swimming races (Donato et al. 2003; Tanaka and Seals 1997). In their analysis (Donato et al. 2003), peak performance was maintained approximately until age 35 years, then a curvilinear decline similar to that in our study was observed."

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1113/jphysiol.2007.141879/pdf

And let me clarify one point - I am not saying a 41 YO can't compete with younger athletes. What I am saying is that one doesn't become a GT contender at the age of 41 without at some point previously showing that capability. Horner has never shown the ability to compete for the overall in a GT. That ability isn't just gonna show up now.

Horner has had access to the best training methods and developmental resources for years.......nobody once has ever said "Whoa.....this guy has some crazy capabilities." And now he does at 41?

Just doesn't add up for me....






Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
jmdirt

Posts:731

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09/12/2013 05:21 PM
"It simply defies everything we know about human performance." was what I was questioning.

"Conclusion - peak performance occurs at 30 and declines slightly until 40 and then rapidly after that. " in a majority of men/people but not all.

Would you generally say that men in their 40s have lower T than men in their 20s? There are studies that identify men in their 40s with T levels as high as 20 year olds.
jmdirt

Posts:731

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09/12/2013 09:58 PM
I was thinking while driving home (yes it hurt): Everyone is claiming that CH was never a GT GC rider BUT:
-The French team brought him to Europe to be their next GT GC guy (that bombed).
-He came back and dominated North and South American as well as some Asian racing (with TD and NO).
-The Spanish pen team brought him back to Europe to be a GT GC guy (he showed flashes).
-The Belgian/Lotto crew brought him in to lead CE to a TdF title (he showed ability to ride strong for 3 weeks).
-He got picked up by the American dope machine to assist in GTs (he rode well but crashed a lot).
-He had a few top 10 GT results riding in support of other riders (he might have done more if not for the crashes/injuries).
-He became a good one week racer again because that was his only chance to be team leader.
*All of that indicates that he is a GT GC threat and directors have known it for 15 years.

I don't want to sound like I'm defending CH because, as I said, I have no idea what he is or isn't doing but there are indications that team directors saw potential in him and there are results that indicate that he can be very strong over three weeks. To claim otherwise is ignoring the facts.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1173

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09/13/2013 05:09 AM
Jm, not certain what you are referring to....I supported my statement with three studies that backed it up. Peak physical performance occurs in the early 30's and declines from there. So yes, Horner @ 41 having the best race of his career defies what we know about human performance.

Is it possible that he is an outlier? I suppose.....but when you add in a questionable past, it seems to be a remote possibility (at best).

And he does not have a "few" top 10's in GT's.....he has one (2010 TdF). He was also 11' off the pace....not exactly contending, IMO.

It kills me to say it, but I just don't buy a guy @ 41 (and 42 next month), with a questionable past, suddenly displaying an ability to contest GT's that he has never done before. A I have said before, I have never been one to make judgements about doping based on the fact that a rider is winning......but this one just doesn't pass the sniff test for me.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Entheo

Posts:317

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09/13/2013 07:25 AM
you can color me very skeptical on horner's staying power.

apples to apples, age will be a significant factor in one of the most important aspects of a 3 week race -- recovery. that a 41 year old can go out and win a stage or even compete for the GC in the first week (e.g. jens) isn't surprising; that he can be there with guys of equal or greater athletic abilities who are 10 to 20 years younger in the 3rd week... well, it's no wonder my eyebrows are on top of my head.

add to that the fact that spain has a proven track record of, well, let's put it this way, leniency when it comes to testing and enforcement of events hosted on their soil.
jmdirt

Posts:731

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09/13/2013 08:54 AM
Cosmic,

I can provide you with better studies to support your statement. What are CH's numbers though?

If he was dirty when he rode with LA does that make him dirty now?

Believe me while I am cheering CH on, I am also clicking my heels together saying "please be real, please be real, please be real".

Entheo, If I could get my eyebrows on top of my head, I could have bangs again (first time since the 80s)!
Orange Crush

Posts:1234

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09/13/2013 11:46 AM
"Peak athletic performance is reached at age 30, with remarkably little decline for the next ten years." that is literally what the study said. That said, TdF winners have aged 28yrs +/- 8yrs (20-36) so Horner would be considerably pushing that envelope.

I don't care for the swim analogy. Compared to cycling most swimming disciplines are like a sprint. Sprinters will reach their expiry date sooner than classics and GC riders.

Long distance speed skating may be a better analogy (I am talking distances approaching 200k) with guys in their low 40s definitely being competitive. But then again you need steel balls to even pick up that sport.
jmdirt

Posts:731

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09/13/2013 12:13 PM
OC, unfortunately the most valid research of endurance athletes is on marathon runners and the pounding gets them before they make it long enough to see good data out near 40. (edit) There is a Norge study of Nordic skiers but I've not read the conclusion.

All elite athletes are outliers that is why they make it to the level they do. They produce more of some endocrine secretions and less of others than the rest of us.
RNDDUDE

Posts:78

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09/13/2013 03:56 PM
Studies are great for measuring generalities, but there have always been, and will continue to be, outliers who defy the norm, particularily in regards to remaining competitive with age. especially when it comes to endurance events. Diane Nyad comes to mind, having finally made a successful distance swim in her 50's. Horner MIGHT be one of those outliers, and as I said before, he might be one of those guys whose "clean" abilities are on a par with than some of the others who are also now forced to ride clean. He is also coming into this GT very fresh, season wise.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistant one. -Albert Einstein
Entheo

Posts:317

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09/13/2013 04:11 PM
nyad has come under scrutiny for a particular stretch of her swim increasing in speed from 1.5 mph to almost 4 (many hours into her swim, for a 5 hour period). she and her manager attributed it to a very favorable gulf stream, and some meteorologists have confirmed that that could have happened.

tail winds... ya gotta love those tail winds!
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1173

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09/13/2013 04:19 PM
Whoa...hang on. Nyad did not "finally make a successful distance swim" in her 50's. She has been doing distance swims for decades and is well-known for her exploits.

What she did was finally find a way around some of the issues that have stopped her previous Cuba - FL swims....namely dealing with the jellyfish.

She has the track record that indicated she was capable of such a swim......and she was hardly swimming "fast" during her swim. It was about endurance, not speed. That is not the same as riding a GT where long periods of anaerobic efforts are required (although clearly endurance plays a critical role).

She also was not competing against anyone.....her accomplishment was much more of a "completion" vs. a "competition."
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
laurentja

Posts:122

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09/13/2013 05:07 PM
It's true that Chris has had a lot of years of stage racing, but not a lot of opportunities to ride as the indisputable leader on a strong team. RS is doing a remarkable job supporting him now. I was a little scared for him after Cancellara went home, but they are doing great.


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