Horner's bio passport data
Last Post 10/07/2013 02:19 PM by Doug Sheppard. 20 Replies.
Author Messages
laurentja

Posts:122

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09/25/2013 12:39 PM
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stinkyhelmet

Posts:73

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09/25/2013 12:41 PM
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laurentja

Posts:122

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09/25/2013 12:43 PM
Just released this morning. chrishornerracing.com. So, now I don't know squat about blood values in elite cyclists, but he is consistently at 45% hematocrit, even in the very early season. I know during the early EPO heyday they put a cap at 50% so all the doped riders were coming in "coincidentally" at 49%. I thought even top amateur cyclists were at more like 40%...?
I really DO want to believe in Chris, as I always have been a fan, and perhaps he has such a well-tuned engine that it's all legit. If not, why would he have released this data? It shows he is consistent, for sure. But real/consistent?
jmdirt

Posts:683

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09/25/2013 12:57 PM
When I had access to free testing at a university physio lab I tried to run a blood pan. monthly and mine was usually ~42 (I never tested in December and only once in Jan and Feb). I wish I would have saved all of that info.
C2K_Rider

Posts:168

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09/25/2013 02:02 PM
Posted By Justin jmdirt on 09/25/2013 12:57 PM
I wish I would have saved all of that info.


Because your massive beat-downs of local riders will cause them to accuse you of doping?
Pin0Q0

Posts:229

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09/25/2013 02:23 PM
Maybe there is a new drug/doping method that we'll hear about in a few years......Not probable but possible.
Entheo

Posts:317

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09/25/2013 02:29 PM
well, good on him for making that data public. the hematocrit certainly seems within the bounds of believeability. i may have to dial my skepticism of his win back a little.
jmdirt

Posts:683

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09/25/2013 02:36 PM
C2K, the old lady who lives two houses down thinks that I doped to edge her to the stop sign!
Pits

Posts:6

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09/25/2013 02:55 PM
I'm sure if the numbers were on the edgy side, he would have withheld the data. Good on him.
Oldfart

Posts:461

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09/25/2013 03:14 PM
45 is what I would call normal for an elite endurance athlete. Higher than the average schmo but average does not cut it at the elite level very often. It should drop over the course of a hard stage race I think. Is there evidence of that?
stronz

Posts:304

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09/25/2013 04:11 PM
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/horner-releases-biological-passport-results

read the first coment by guy incognito. then tell me you think he's clean. reticulocytes shouldnt go down the way they did. Only way is with a bag o blood. I think this will actually cause a $hit storm for ole CH
stronz

Posts:304

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09/25/2013 04:13 PM
here's the comment by guyincognito. Dont know who he is but what he says does make sense. And consistent with what I have read about reticulocytes and how they react to Hct.

These blood values are just like the ones Lance made public in 2010:
They appease the casual fans who can't interpret them, but are in fact deeply unsettling if you know what you're looking at

Haemoglobin rising during a 3 week competition? A small rise of 0.1-0.2% would already be unlikely, but several percentage points? Obvious red flag. The only other explanations for it would be severe dehydration or pregnancy. I doubt he won a 3 week race while severely dehydrated, and I know he wasn't pregnant.

At the same time, retics decrease, and not by a small amount. They decrease BY MORE THAN HALF. The typical reaction of anyone's body to a blood bag infusion. Red flag.

The off-score variations are not on the limit of believability, they are a very long way above it. A varation of minus 15.6 in a week???

There are not nearly enough retics in his blood in early 3 week GT tests to account for the increase in red cell count in tests days or a week later. Where did those red cells come from? Did they appear by magic? A transfusion is literally the only possibility.

10% expansion pre-vuelta? There is no possibility for that other than blood bag
Comparing that to his Giro values from before his ridiculous transformation and they don't look like they even belong to the same person!

I'm afraid to even look at the rest. I took one quick glance and saw a FORTY POINT VARIATION IN OFF-SCORE!!!!! Why not just carry around a neon sign announcing you're on EPO?

This is not good. This is very not good.
Keith Richards

Posts:727

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09/25/2013 05:13 PM
I am not trusting anyone named "guyincognito", sorry.
----- It is his word versus ours. We like our word. We like where we stand and we like our credibility."--Lance Armstrong.
Orange Crush

Posts:1163

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09/25/2013 05:20 PM
What Keith said, incognito gets corrected/challenged further down the comment box; there will be lots of "experts" each with their own opinion, until a real expert waves his/her magic wand I would not hang my hat either way.

One thing's for sure, Horner gets tested about as much as the entire Jamaican athletics team.
Ride On

Posts:424

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09/25/2013 06:02 PM
If it was that obvious we would be hearing from Travis any day now.
jmdirt

Posts:683

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09/25/2013 09:01 PM
Talk with a hemo doc (preferably one who has a research background with endurance athletes) before getting too excited by internet postings.

Pits, KR, OC, and Ride On make good points.

jmdirt

Posts:683

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09/25/2013 09:26 PM
Here is one reply to the first post:

While I cannot say whether Horner was doping or not, your half-baked post needed a response. It is clear from your statements that you know absolutely nothing about hemodynamics other than what you read in internet chat rooms.

Hemoglobin rise? from 14.4 on 8/29 to 14.3 on Sept 7. That looks like they did not change. Even the 13.5 measurement on Sept 3 is less that one half of the natural diurnal variation seen in men (see Sennels et. al., 2011, Scand. J. Clin Lab Invest. 71(7):532-541 or Pocock et al., 1989 J. Clin Path. 42(2): 172-179). So contrary to your uninformed opinion, there was no unusual rise in his hemoglobin or hematocrit during the race.

The OFF-score variations are well with normal limits, as seen by Pottgeiser et al., (Transfusion 51:1707-1715 and supplementary materials). so there is nothing "red flag" about that. In order to demonstrate probable doping, OFF-score variations need to be in the range of 40-60 (once again read Pottgeiser's article). So were was this 40 point spread you saw? A 16 point swing was the highest I saw for all the scores for 2013 and you should know that you cannot just pick two random OFF-scores and compare them. they are used to evaluate serial changes in hemodynamic parameters.

Comparing his Vuelta data to the earlier tests in 2013 what you see is a very stable blood profile. I defy you to show me one piece of data that is indicative of doping using Pottgieser's article as a reference point.

Once again, I am not saying Horner is clean or he doped, but based on the data he posted on his Biological Passport there is no evidence that he did. For you to post otherwise just shows your ignorance of the data.
stronz

Posts:304

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09/25/2013 10:50 PM
Well I am certainly not a hematOlogist but the reticulocytes don't make sense To me. I could be wrong but the they should be higher than they are at the end of a 3 week race. I'll wait for smarter heads to weigh in.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:1059

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09/26/2013 02:14 PM
I don't read comments on ANY news article on the interwebs, much less assign any credibility to them.

Reading the Comments section on any subject just makes me weep for the future, anyway.....
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
jmdirt

Posts:683

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10/06/2013 11:00 AM
CH interview:

http://velonews.competitor.com/2013/10/news/horner-qa-looking-for-a-job-releasing-data-and-winning-at-41_304993

I like his take on VAM and like this quote: "...but he came up with this magical number that says, “he must be doping.” And then, of course the journalists print that stuff, and the journalists didn’t check their own facts. Matt, I’m really quite surprised when I released my blood results from 2008, not one cycling newspaper or magazine or internet [site] has even paid to have a professional blood guy actually analyze my results and say, “look, these numbers are fantastic. they’re clean.” … Why haven’t you guys — and I don’t mean you guys, I mean the whole of the journalism area — why hasn’t all of [cycling] journalism paid the money to have a professional look at my blood results and then post to everybody on the web page about how clean my results are? Because I know my results are clean."
The Short White Guy™

Posts:56

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10/07/2013 02:19 PM
Why pay a real doc/lab (other than maybe that French lab) to do the leg work, when we have armchair quarterbacks and the interwebs?




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