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World Cup CX Thread
Last Post 02/17/2022 11:19 AM by Dale Dale. 118 Replies.
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Author Messages
Cosmic Kid

Posts:3985

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02/01/2022 09:16 AM
Good recap, dale....thanks for the insights!!

And the guy who was holding up the sign was Keith Garrison.....you can send him props on the twitters at @keithgarrisonnn
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Orange Crush

Posts:4060

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02/01/2022 09:23 AM
I banned Twitter years ago. No regrets.
Dale

Posts:1639

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02/04/2022 09:06 AM
Not sure if my math is right but here's the lap times for each of the categories

World Championship CX times
Category # of laps Total time Lap time
Men (9 laps) 60:36 6:44
U23 M (7 laps) 49:21 7:03
Jr Men (6 laps) 43:11 7:12
U23 W (6 laps) 46:27 7:45
Women (7 laps) 55:00 7:51
Jr Wom (5 laps) 41:16 8:15

I figured the pro women would have been faster than the junior men.

Due to race dynamics and changing course conditions lap times don't tell the whole story but the conditions didn't change much all weekend and other then Vos and Brand playing cat-and-mouse on the last lap or so there wasn't a race that wasn't mostly full gas.
79pmooney

Posts:2960

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02/04/2022 10:00 AM
I checked your math, Dale. Good work. (Excel geek here. I used to calculate fishing vessel stability. Elaborate spreadsheets were a huge labor saver. And once debugged, they didn't misread numbers or lose their place in the table.)
Dale

Posts:1639

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02/04/2022 10:05 AM
Thanks Ben.

Guess I shouldn’t be surprised the U23 women had faster lap times than the pro women, those three Dutch U23’s were TTT’ing it like crazy the whole race. Once off the front Vos and Brand were just racing each other which I know contradicts my previous statement.
Orange Crush

Posts:4060

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02/04/2022 10:49 AM
Ben - I'm afraid by now for the serious calculators, Excel is a major no no. My team and many others codes everything in R for reproducable, repeatable results. It comes with a huge library of standard calculations and graphing options. And didn't they miss a whole bunch of Covid cases in Britain at start of pandemic because Excel allows only for so many rows (entries)? Here's maybe a quick intro into key differences if you're interested: https://www.gapintelligence.com/blog/understanding-r-programming-over-excel-for-data-analysis/

But yes Dale, perceptually it looks correct. The Vos/Brand battle was tactical. Pro cycling stats lists the mens race at 27.723 km/h and women at 23.673 km/h so their speed was 85% of men, or their lap times should be 1/0.85 = 117% of men so your math seems to add up.

https://cx.procyclingstats.com/
79pmooney

Posts:2960

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02/04/2022 11:23 AM
OC, I have no desire to learn another program! Excel works very well for the thousands or less items I'm likely to need to deal with. Lives aren't at stake.

I started my spreadsheet journey two programs before Excel. Forget the names. One might have been VP something. I still have Excel programs that I wrote in the former. Before that, it was paper and pencil spread sheets. The weight analysis of one fishing vessel was 17 11x17 sheets. Did that and it was "time to write a program!"
Orange Crush

Posts:4060

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02/04/2022 11:32 AM
Posted By 79 pmooney on 02/04/2022 11:23 AM
OC, I have no desire to learn another program!


Neither have I. I used to program in Fortran, then C, first on Unix machines then PCs as they became more powerfull. Lots of matrix equations and tens of thousands lines of code. Now I have my team do the work in R and I just check whether it makes sense. If not I use my "WTF!" review stamp. I have a manual one that uses red ink but a smart colleague also made an automated WTF as a ShinyApp. Unfortunately she was prevented from uploading this App to the public library based on language. Maybe we'll try the dark web. BTW, aren't "lifes at stake" in vessel stability calculations?
79pmooney

Posts:2960

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02/04/2022 12:36 PM
Posted By Orange Crush on 02/04/2022 11:32 AM
Posted By 79 pmooney on 02/04/2022 11:23 AM
OC, I have no desire to learn another program!


Neither have I. I used to program in Fortran, then C, first on Unix machines then PCs as they became more powerfull. Lots of matrix equations and tens of thousands lines of code. Now I have my team do the work in R and I just check whether it makes sense. If not I use my "WTF!" review stamp. I have a manual one that uses red ink but a smart colleague also made an automated WTF as a ShinyApp. Unfortunately she was prevented from uploading this App to the public library based on language. Maybe we'll try the dark web. BTW, aren't "lifes at stake" in vessel stability calculations?
When I worked at Marco in Seattle, I was the guy who was both delegated to and embraced doing crap boat stability.  There the issue was how many crab pots could you load on deck and take out to the grounds.  The more pots, the better the profit for that year's crabbing (a very short window of time before the season was closed for another year).  Too many pots and the weather turns?  Capsize time.  A sad inch of news column in the Seattle paper.

I was doing this after the stability regulations had just changed to incorporate the effect of a sudden blast of wind from the side.  Before it was all based on the static stability of the vessel; all stuff you could measure at the dock. This new calc used both the measured and calculated numbers and some crude assumptions thrown in because enough data was out there to show the end result worked well.  Boats that passed regularly came home.  Boats that were lost often didn't.  (There are mistakes you can make running crab boats that wil sink even the most seaworthy.  Plus ice - I ran calcs assuming a large amount of ice frozen high on the crab pot netting but nature doesn't always stop at the numbers set by the regulatory bodies.)

Now, further complicating all this is the level of fuel and water in the various tanks.  These can have a huge affect on stability.  The gift to me was the locally written commercial stability software.  The vessel would be modeled in as a 3-d shape.  Tanks located inside with their 3-d shapes.  The weight and center of gravity (CG) of the vessel and all permanently attached stuff is entered.  Then, all the changeable weights, ie each 600-800 pound crabpot and their CGs.  Last, the program is told the percentages full of each tank.  Program then tips the vessel (say 30 degrees), calculates where the tank liquids would settle to, adjust the fore and aft trim of the vessel to meet the changed CG location, recalculate the tanks, repeat the trim and so on until "good enough" and calculate the stability for that degree of tip.  Repeat at the next angle.  (That program was/is amazing.  Floats the boat like a toy boat a kid held in the bathtub, then let go.  Boat oscillates back and forth, gradually settling in, just like real life.)

This has to be done at each tank fill condition so a lot of cases!  I would then harvest the key numbers for each condition and enter them into the Excel sheet I created to calculate "Severe Wind and Roll".  See if it passed.  If no, remove a few pots and repeat.  If yes and by more than a small amount, add some.  ($$ in the owner's pocket.)  Finally make easy to read charts that show allowable pots with fuel usage, both for non-icing conditions and icing.

And yes, this directly affects both the owner's and crew's annual income and the likelihood of them staying out of the news.  (A poorly done report just gets ignored by the skippers when they know a condition is presented as safe when they know it isn't or they are told that something they've been doing for years isn't.  Good reports too get ignored.  Sometimes those boats make the news.  To my knowledge, the skippers with my reports retired.)

79pmooney

Posts:2960

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02/04/2022 01:14 PM
Fortran! I learned that in school. At Marco, I wrote the Severe Wind and Roll program to read off a table of inputs including a list of crabpots. It would run the numbers for that case and output to both a running list of cases and append the results to the bottom of the input file. Very useful for hit or miss work. If I passed my goal I could look at the long list to see the inputs that worked better.

Years later, I removed the calcs, wrote new ones, altered the inputs to bike geometry numbers and outputs to required stem lengths and heights to get proper fit. Didn't take long to see that there were no ti frames out there with better than a "B" fit! Hence the TiCycles.

I love that, with a current compiler, I can run ancient Fortran programs and they work just fine. Just the 15 minute calc time gets reduced to a billionth of a second.
Cosmic Kid

Posts:3985

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02/04/2022 01:53 PM
My freshman year in college, I had to take Assembler and Fortran. Assembler was (at the time) about as close as you could get to programing in binary.

There was a reason I switched to PoliSci / History.
Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
Dale

Posts:1639

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02/04/2022 02:14 PM
HA! I've been in the boat business all my life and saw what Ben wrote which went totally over my head. All I've been involved with is from the mechanic side and later in sales. As I tell my wife who is in surgery everyday administering anesthesia, "If I screw up somebody gets the wrong color boat, if you mess up somebody doesn't wake up."

Glad I deal with simple stuff.
Orange Crush

Posts:4060

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02/04/2022 02:53 PM
My first thought in reading Ben's post was whether it allowed for sufficient variables in the analyses. So I read it a couple times. Then again, my line of work involves finding errors or omissions in complex calculations and assessment so we don't get taken to task by regulators etc. I.e. making our products (reports) bulletproof to scrutiny.

Ben - it may interest that my father designed (or at least was responsible for major components of design) of an LNG carrier for indoor waters. Still remember getting a tour of the ship when it was being baptized. He also designed (and for a large part built) the house I grew up in and designed entire factory lines. I inherited none of those skills other than having a good head for complex analyses.
79pmooney

Posts:2960

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02/04/2022 04:02 PM
OC, indoor waters? Do you mean inland waters, ie rivers and lakes?

Freshman naval architecture at U of Michigan we studied the differences between ocean waves, weather and ships vs lake waves, weather and ships. (The Great Lakes being why Michigan has the department to start with.) The Great Lake carriers were designed and built to much lower standards of strength and stability because the waves are so much smaller. Except Lake Superior - a small freshwater ocean. And every once in a while, it claims a ship that would be just fine on the other 4 lakes.

In that course, we learned that the most risky run of the year was the last of the fall by the iron ore carriers running from Duluth, MN to the steel mills of say Cleveland, OH. Over the summer the big, near full width hatch covers over the ore holds had been picked up by crane and roughly set down so many times they were warped and now poor fits. Summer? Who cares. But in the ocean storm conditions that can well be seen on Lake Superior in late November, the constantly flooded deck now sees water leaking down in real quantities into the ore holds. Water in amongst the very heavy iron ore is very hard to monitor or remove. Those ships were single bottom. Cheaper to build, lighter, could carry more tons of cargo. But you cannot drain water if there is no lower place for it to go.

So, storm hits. Ship just keeps getting heavier and heavier. (And less stable because every time it rolls, that water sloshes to the lowest place; the low side - exactly where you don't want it.) Heavier ship, sinks lower in the water and more water sloshes the deck and finds its way below. Eventually the ship capsizes or simply just slides under, usually with full crew.

We studied this in 1971. 4 years later, Gorden Lightfoot wrote a song about an ore carrier that did just that. He was scoffed at the time but the later dives to the wreck confirmed he got it right. (The Wreck of the Edmond Fitzgerald)
Orange Crush

Posts:4060

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02/04/2022 04:19 PM
Haha, yes inland of course. Mostly on major rivers but also Ijselmeer (used to be marine but is now permanently separated from North Sea) and some are rated to chug along the North Sea coast.

Always surprised to see how deep these inland carriers run when they're fully loaded. And yes, when the Ijselmeer gets choppy some tend to go under. I grew up near where one of major canals enters one of major rivers, as kids we always spend a lot of time at the locks and harbour.
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