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Contador's options for stage 18 - slight spoiler
Last Post 07/19/2013 11:34 AM by Orange Crush. 43 Replies.
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stronz

Posts:312

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07/17/2013 12:53 PM
So now that Berto is in second does he keep the pressure on and try to ally with other interested parties tomorrow and break away the first time up the Alpe, bomb the descent and try to hold off the troops the second time up?

Or does he recognize that sometimes second place in the Tour has a way of becoming first place and ride conservatively?

I'm betting on him staying aggressive
Orange Crush

Posts:1216

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07/17/2013 12:57 PM
I don't think that is a question - Contador only knows how to ride one way and it's what makes him one of the most exciting bike racers out there.

The only question in my mind is whether the tactical game will involve sacrificing Kreuzinger (how?), which might offer a chance for my pick Mollema to climb back on the podium.
jpouchet

Posts:81

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07/17/2013 01:08 PM
Don't see how Contador can possibly hope to bridge the time gap but mechanicals do happen. Let's see if anyone on Saxo shows up with a frame pump tomorrow! That tactic may work.
bobswire

Posts:296

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07/17/2013 01:08 PM
One thing about Berto, it's not in his DNA to ride conservatively but Froome is not like Rodriguez and I doubt Froome will give any quarter for Berto to do what he did against Rodriguez in the Vuelta last year.
BUT anything can happen.........
RNDDUDE

Posts:78

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07/17/2013 01:14 PM
I predict fireworks tomorrow, stay tuned...
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistant one. -Albert Einstein
stronz

Posts:312

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07/17/2013 01:19 PM
Is Kreuziger a good descender? One thing saxo could do, OC, is have AC go up the road on Alpe#1 and then have Kreuziger bridge to him on the descent and see if AC and RK can hold off Froome on the 2nd time up. Of course they could do that in reverse too -- have Kreuziger attack on the first climb and see if Froome counters. Contador and Kreuziger trading attacks could easily wear Froome down to the point where he is in no mood to push things on the descent and lets them gain a few minutes.
pikeHillRoad

Posts:95

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07/17/2013 01:43 PM
I am going with Mikc Rogers and some other Saxo guys going in the early break. Attacks from Bert or Roman coming on the Ornon before the first Alpe. Whoever does not go is there to counter.

Other teams in on that game: Belkin? Garmin? Movistar?

Sure, that will happen, that's why I am some stooge in an office...

It would be exciting though.
spok

Posts:4

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07/17/2013 02:13 PM
I think Contador is much more likely to try something on Friday's stage.

To be successful, Saxo has to isolate Froome early on, force him to work and hopefully overextend himself. I just don't see how they do that tommorrow. It does Contador no good to attack on the first ascent of the Alpe if Kennaugh and Porte are still with Froome.

On Friday's stage, Saxo could send Rogers with the early break on the Glandon, have Contador attack and go full gas up the Madeilline. Kruez could just follow wheels. That could potentially leave Froome by himself for the remainder of a long stage.


CERV

Posts:151

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07/17/2013 02:46 PM
The main thing that throws a wrench in a lot of these plans for saxo is that other GC riders ARE racing for 2nd place. If RK goes up the road, given his place in GC, other podium hopefuls are going to want to bring it back. Froome and Porte can most likely just wait for a wheel to pull them back.

At this point it seems to me like saxo's best bet as a team is to have both AC and RK fuly willing to sacrifice to help the other, and let the cards fall. If it is obvious that they are racing only for AC, that changes other riders' responses.
spok

Posts:4

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07/17/2013 02:52 PM
I don't know, the time gaps are pretty big from Contador/Kreuz back to Mollema/Quintana now. I'm not sure Moviestar and Belkin do the chasing if Contador goes up the road.

I doubt that Saxo send Kreuz. I very much doubt that he wants to risk his podium place swinging for the fences. Contador on the other hand, I think, is more than willing to.
jmdirt

Posts:711

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07/17/2013 03:01 PM
This is what I posted in the tactics thread a few days ago:

"There is still some important racing between now and then but I wonder if anyone will try to go long on the first ascent of L'Alpe d'Huez, descend like il Falco, and then attack L'Alp again? I know that's a ~60K move but it could work with two or three guys since its a climb, descent, climb.

The other thought is trying to gain half of the time deficit on AdH and the other half on stage 20 but that's a big gamble as well. "

I'm sticking with that. If AC really doesn't care if he gets 2nd or 10th he needs to go for it. RK can just sit and watch. If AC blows to the moon, then RK moves up to the second step and Saxo-Tinkov still has a good TdF result.
Orange Crush

Posts:1216

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07/17/2013 03:05 PM
I'd tend to agree with Spok that Friday may be better than tomorrow. Tomorrow should be focused on tiring the sky train and then try to isolate Froome early on Friday. Note that Porte likely took it easy today whereas Kreuziger went hard so tomorrow Sky may have a leg up on Saxo in terms of freshness.
jmdirt

Posts:711

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07/17/2013 04:40 PM
Its important to think about the amount of time that AC needs. There is little chance that he could gain it in one stage.
stronz

Posts:312

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07/17/2013 04:42 PM
Floyd did it. Oh wait...
longslowdistance

Posts:701

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07/17/2013 05:02 PM
I was thinking the same thing. It was beautiful when it happened. Sigh
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