Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 03/19/2021 09:22 AM |
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Possibly my favorite classic to watch....the last 30k are some of the best in cycling. Nothing better than the sight of the peloton thundering down the coastal roads.
MdvP is obviously the 5 star favorite, followed by WvA and Allaphillipe. I don’t see this coming down to a bunch sprint this year, so little chance for Bennet IMO. |
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| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
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Dale
Posts:1767
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| 03/19/2021 10:20 AM |
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No way will they let the pure sprinters have a go at it. Between the three of those guys it's going to explode on the Poggio.
Four years ago I was there in person and got to ride the section from the before the Cipressa and the Poggio then onto Via Roma. The speeds they come down off Poggio is insane! Rock walls to meet you if you overcook a turn. They carve those turns like an F-1 at Monaco. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2021 11:15 AM |
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I will put van Aert ahead of MVDP. Its a fast and furious finish which will give him an advantage I think. He has shown his finishing speed at Tirreno.
JA is somewhat behind those two but he's been on all three steps of podium so this race suits him.
Those in the know say to watch for Matthews as the dark horse. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 03/19/2021 11:41 AM |
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I do wonder if MdvP doesn't take a long shot and try and go on the Cipressa....we know he can explode like no other rider, maintain a unbeievable tempo that no one can match for 15-30 minutes and then hold at just under sub-threshold for a long time. That is a perfect combo for going on the Cipressa....and it is so unorthodox, everyone may give him a gap as they try and decide what to do.
There is also a question of whether he overcooked himself at T-A. Longest stage race of his career (I think) and that very long break in cold conditions....and with MSR being 300k, fatigue is definitely a factor.
regardless, he is still my 5 star favorite with WvA and JA at 4 stars. UAE could be a team to watch as well with Kristoff and Trentin (but not Gaviria).
Like the Matthews nod, OC. |
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| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/19/2021 12:07 PM |
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| My favorite for this is Alaphillipe. He could take advantage of the MvdP/MvA rivalry. And perhaps take a lesson from Strada Bianchi and not work to set up others. Long shot, yes. He cannot manage either of those two one on one. But those climbs may well set him back the least. Can he ride patiently and smart? |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/19/2021 12:28 PM |
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CK
MVDP has said he rested well and legs are good. The team briefly feared he'd gotten a cold (he forgot to put on his under layer that day, go figure, is this guy's name Oscar Freire, too busy on the Fortnite perhaps?). That won't be the issue.
He's pretty much talked himself out of attacking early but with him you never know if he gets bored.
It's been 60 years since his grandpa won, and the last Dutch win was 1985 (?) by Kuiper in a rare successful long range attack. The winds are what matters most. Headwind will doom any early escape.
Ben - JA riding patiently and smart? Haha - never. It is not in his genes. He said that even through he's been at sharp end of race three times now, he still can't picture in his head what Poggio descent looks like. Lots of physical talent but he's a nervous one. |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/19/2021 01:57 PM |
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Posted By Orange Crush on 03/19/2021 12:28 PM
...
Ben - JA riding patiently and smart? Haha - never. It is not in his genes. He said that even through he's been at sharp end of race three times now, he still can't picture in his head what Poggio descent looks like. Lots of physical talent but he's a nervous one.
I can dream, can't I? 
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/20/2021 09:33 AM |
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MSR is the easiest classic to get up for early as it is daylight savings here but not in Europe yet. But it is also least worthwhile.
Yaaaaaawn. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/20/2021 10:09 AM |
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MVDP looks like he’s in a spin class sitting in 20th wheel up Cipressa.
Time to wake up. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/20/2021 10:31 AM |
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| Ewan is looking very good. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/20/2021 10:40 AM |
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| Smart play by Stuyven. Just enough. |
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Cosmic Kid
Posts:4209
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| 03/20/2021 11:15 AM |
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Not the greatest edition....but I guess kinda inevitable. When you have the three strongest guys, everyone was marking them. And with Ineos drilling the pace at the base of the Poggio, I think everyone was a bit cautious, thinking the first guy to go loses.
Perfect move from Stuyven...usually the counter from that is the one that works, but Stuyven played it perfectly by recovering just enough and then kicking again.
Was kinda hoping to see Ewan pull it off....he looked so good on the Poggio. If he had a teamate with him, it might have been his. |
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| Just say "NO!" to WCP!!!!
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/20/2021 11:26 AM |
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Yeah Ewan should be one who is most disappointed. He won’t get this chance too often.
The sprint behind was tricky with so many fast guys.
Sagan being there in not particularly good form is surprising. |
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Orange Crush
Posts:4499
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| 03/20/2021 05:21 PM |
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| Last time the race was as fast as today was Pozatto in 2006. |
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79pmooney
Posts:3180
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| 03/20/2021 06:11 PM |
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In American units, 28.0 MPH. Fast!
My thoughts - the three bigs needed to see to it that the pace was higher on Cippressa and Poggio. Letting that many hang - just plain dangerous. But! I love the chess match of mass start road racing! What Stuyven did was cool! Given that the big three didn't do what they had to, I wish Sagan had pulled one more place and podiumed. But I am guessing he pulled as perfect a race as Stuyven did - in the sense that he knew full well he only had so many matches and used them really well. I read of a few saying he should have started his sprint from closer to the front. He would have had to burn one or more of those matches to do that. He didn't have his old power to just move up whenever he wanted. (I know the medical issue recovery, burn those matches carefully! routine a little too well.)
Unlike MvdP and MvA, JA tried. Didn't work but I like seeing him giving and effort to try to separate. Yes, 16th place instead of 3rd and 5th but it was a poor placing after trying to get rid of the riders who shouldn't have been there. I give him more credit than the other two. |
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