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Projecting squads for the Tour de France
Last Post 04/13/2010 02:38 AM by Alexandra Edge. 2 Replies.
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04/11/2010 09:07 AM
Yes, I'm going to try to guess all 198 cyclists who will compete in La Grande Boucle. I'd do this for the Giro, since it's my favorite race, but I know next to nothing about teams like Androni Giacottoli, or Colnago or Acqua e Sapone, and I'm pretty familiar with all 22 teams in the Tour.

I think it's pretty safe to say where everyone's form is right now. Team directors have to at least be thinking about this at this point in the season. Notwithstanding any unforeseen injuries or suspensions, I think projections can safely be made right now.

And no, I'm not such a geek that I'm actually guessing bib numbers, but why not organize them that way.

1. Alberto Contador (this will actually be the first time he's worn bib number one in a Grand Tour)
2. David de la Fuente
3. Alexsandr Dyachenko
4. Enrico Gasparotto
5. Daniel Navarro
6. Oscar Pereiro
7. Gorazd Stangelj
8. Paolo Tiralongo
9. Alexander Vinokourov

11. Tadej Valjavec
12. Jose Luis Arrieta
13. Cyril Dessel
14. Vladimir Efimkin
15. Martin Elmiger
16. Tanel Kangert
17. Anthony Ravard
18. Christophe Riblon
19. Ludovic Turpin

21. David Arroyo
22. Juan Jose Cobo
23. Vasil Kiryienka
24. David Lopez Garcia
25. Christophe Moreau
26. Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil
27. Luis Leon Sanchez
28. Mauricio Soler
29. Xabier Zandio

31. Igor Anton
32. Koldo Fernandez
33. Egoi Martinez
34. Juan Jose Oroz
35. Ruben Perez
36. Amets Txurruka (should be back from the collarbone injury by June)
37. Pablo Urtasun
38. Ivan Velasco
39. Gorka Verdugo

41. Jose Alberto Benitez
42. Eros Capecchi
43. Ermano Capelli
44. Manuel Cardoso
45. Giampaolo Cheula
46. Arkaitz Duran
47. David Gutierrez Gutierrez
48. Iban Mayoz
49. Aitor Perez

51. Christope Le Mevel
52. Sandy Casar
53. Sebastien Chavanel
54. Remy Di Gregorio
55. Yauheni Hutarovich
56. Mathieu Ladagnous
57. Jeremy Roy
58. Benoit Vaugrenard
59. Jussi Veikkanen

61. Mark Cavendish
62. Lars Bak
63. Bernhard Eisel
64. Tony Martin
65. Maxime Monfort
66. Mark Renshaw
67. Michael Rogers
68. Hayden Roulston
69. Peter Velits

71. Alessandro Petacchi
72. Emanuele Bindi
73. Matteo Bono
74. Francesco Gavazzi
75. Danilo Hondo
76. David Loosli
77. Marco Marzano
78. Daniele Pietropolli
79. Alessandro Spezialetti

81. Ivan Basso
82. Franco Pellizotti
83. Vincenzo Nibali
84. Roman Kreuziger
85. Valerio Agnoli
86. Manuel Quinziato
87. Peter Sagan
88. Sylwester Szmyd
89. Oliver Zaugg

91. Linus Gerdemann
92. Gerald Ciolek
93. Wim de Vocht
94. Robert Forster
95. Markus Fothen
96. Luke Roberts
97. Bjorn Schroder
98. Wim Stroetings
99. Niki Terpstra

101. Jurgen Roelandts
102. Daniel Moreno
103. Mario Aerts
104. Philippe Gilbert
105. Leif Hoste
106. Sebastian Lang
107. Staf Schierlinckx
108. Jurgen Van Den Broeck
109. Jurgen Van Goolen

111. Carlos Barredo
112. Tom Boonen
113. Sylvain Chavanel
114. Dries Devenyns
115. Mauro Facci
116. Jerome Pineau
117. Jurgen van de Walle
118. Kevin van Impe
119. Maarten Wynants

121. Denis Menchov
122. Robert Gesink
123. Mauricio Ardila
124. Stef Clement
125. Oscar Freire
126. Juan Manuel Garate
127. Koos Moerenhout
128. Grischa Niermann
129. Joost Posthuma

131. Andy Schleck
132. Fabian Cancellara
133. Jakob Fuglsang
134. Juan Jose Haedo
135. Gustav Erik Larsson
136. Stuart O'Grady
137. Frank Schleck
138. Nicki Sorensen
139. Jens Voigt

141. Thomas Voeckler
142. Yukiya Arashiro
143. Freddy Bichot
144. Anthony Charteau
145. Pierrick Fedrigo
146. Yohann Gene
147. Laurent Lefevre
148. Matthieu Sprick
149. Johan Tschopp

151. Cadel Evans
152. Marcus Burghardt
153. Thomas Frei
154. George Hincapie
155. Alexander Kristoff
156. Karsten Kroon
157. Steve Morabito
158. Mauro Santambrogio
159. Michael Schar

161. Carlos Sastre (at least I hope so)
162. Theo Bos
163. Heinrich Haussler
164. Thor Hushovd
165. Xavier Florencio
166. Volodymir Gustov
167. Jeremy Hunt
168. Gabriel Rasch
169. Xavier Tondo

171. David Moncoutie
172. Samuel Dumoulin
173. Mickael Buffaz
174. Leonardo Duque
175. Julien El Fares
176. Jens Keukeleire
177. Amael Moinard
178. Remi Pauriol
179. Rein Taaramae

181. Christian Vandevelde
182. Julian Dean
183. Tyler Farrar
184. Murilo Fischer
185. Robert Hunter
186. Trent Lowe
187. David Millar
188. Johan Vansummeren
189. David Zabriskie

191. Joaquin Rodriguez
192. Kim Kirchen
193. Robbie McEwen
194. Alexandre Botcharov
195. Mikhail Ignatiev
196. Sergeui Ivanov
197. Alexandr Kolobnev
198. Danilo Napolitano
199. Filippo Pozzato

201. Lance Armstrong
202. Janez Brajkovic
203. Chris Horner
204. Andreas Kloden
205. Levi Leipheimer
206. Jason McCartney
207. Jose Luis Rubiera
208. Gert Steegmans
209. Haimar Zubeldia

211. Bradley Wiggins
212. Kurt Asle Arvesen
213. Chris Froome
214. Edvald Boasson Hagen
215. Greg Henderson
216. Juan Antonio Flecha
217. Simon Gerrans
218. Thomas Lovkvist
219. Serge Pauwels

So, did I make any obvious errors? (as in someone said they would pass over the Tour this year) I excluded a number of riders who have said they'll ride the Giro, but they could easily ride both. A small number of riders (Basso, Pellizotti, Farrar among them - Farrar has actually said he'll ride all three Grands and the world championships...ambitious plan) have already said they'll ride both.


04/12/2010 11:24 PM
At first glance I would say McCartney, Rubiera and Steegmans won't be on the RS team. My guess would be Rast, Vaitkus and Paulinho.

I would say Sagan and Keukeleire are too young for the Tour...maybe the Giro or Vuelta.

Chainel and Bonnet should make it for Bbox.

Vino and Basso might not be will be interesting to see what happens there.

I think Saxo will leave Haedo home and put in Breschel - no room for a sprinter if they want Schleck to win, and MB will be good for the cobbles.


04/13/2010 02:38 AM
And BMC has now suspended Santambrogio, so strike him.

Steegmans, yeah, may be unlikely, but I can't imagine the Shack leaves Chechu at home (though his big race this year is the Vuelta, what with it going over a climb named after him). The choice of McCartney or Rast/Vaitkus would seem to depend on the team's strategy. McCartney is a good guy to pull the peloton with, to control a race with, but if they don't plan on trying to get Lance or Levi or Kloden into yellow before the last three or four days of the race (which...they might not), they wouldn't necessarily need a guy like him.

Only a few teams will bring leadout trains, obviously. Columbia, Garmin, Lampre, possibly Cervelo. On paper Garmin might actually have the best train. I think there's gonna be a few guys who will try to freelance. Maybe Steegmans, maybe McEwen, I don't think Liquigas will bring Bennati but hey maybe.

As far as Basso and Vinokourov go, I'm pretty sure Basso has already come out and said that he's riding the Tour to win it this year. It's been five years since he last rode it, so any grudges have to be long gone (or at least, they should). Vinokourov has said he wants to ride for Contador in the Tour. Nothing would make me happier than to see him excluded.

I think Sagan will absolutely ride the Tour. I'm not saying he'll challenge Andy Schleck for the white jersey (and, yes, he is still eligible for that), or that he'll even do anything at all, but he was a dominant stage hunter in Paris-Nice. Keukeleire's wins have been in much smaller races, sure, but Sagan's getting it done against the best. I think Cofidis will bring Keukeleire because who do they bring if not him? Alexandre Blain? Christophe Kern? Nico Sijmens? When was the last time any of them accomplished anything?

I think one guy who will definitely stay home is Damiano Cunego. The route is probably a little too hard for him, but what's much too hard for him is the peloton. He'll be much, much better served riding the Vuelta again. How many stages (on which Cunego could win) in last year's Tour were conquered by a breakaway? One, to my recollection - Ventoux. Every other stage was Contador this, or Schleck that, or Armstrong here or Wiggins there. Every cotton picking stage in the Vuelta was a breakaway stage. Pretty obvious that Lampre will send both Cunego and Petacchi to the Giro. If Petacchi's up for it, the Giro/Tour double looks ideal for him.
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